Another surprise, another problem, another day of waiting. Hamas last night informed Israel of the list of names of the four hostages it will release today, and they are not the ones the Israeli government, media, and people were expecting.
If all goes well, Karina Ariev, Daniella Gilboa, Naama Levy and Liri Albag, all in their twenties, all observers (soldiers responsible for visual surveillance of the border), captured at the Nahal Oz military base after Hamas seized it on October 7, will be released.
The four – and in particular Liri Albag, who was seen in a video a few weeks ago showing her in despair and in tears – are among the most well-known faces of the crisis on the Israeli side. To free them, Tel Aviv will release 50 Palestinian prisoners for each (including some convicted of terrorism) compared to 30 prisoners released for each civilian. For the prisoners, the prison doors will open once the women are in Israel: at the same time, the people of Gaza will be able to start returning north.
All right? Not quite. According to the Doha agreement, civilians were to be released first and only then soldiers. Missing from the list are Shiri Bibas, the mother of Kfir and Ariel, and Arbel Yehud, 29, from the Nir Oz kibbutz. Israel had demanded that Yehud be released today and – according to Reuters – was prepared to remove another name from the list to return him: the negotiations explain the media silence imposed on the Israeli media for hours. But in the end, Yehud will not be returned today. The woman – according to what is published in the press – is alive and in the hands of Islamic Jihad: whether this is the reason for the delay is not clear.
But the absence of her name is what for a few hours raised fears that the deal would fall through: final approval was only given in the evening. The case for Mrs. Bibas is different: for months rumors about the deaths of red-haired children have been circulating, although no one here spreads them publicly. The fact that attention has not been focused on them is a clear signal.
The release will once again be managed by the International Committee of the Red Cross: like a week ago, three camps are ready on the Israeli side of the Strip to receive the hostages, and the one closest to the release point will be activated.
Once the soldiers are in the hands of the Israeli Armed Forces, buses carrying Palestinian prisoners will leave the prisons for the West Bank and Israeli troops will begin to withdraw from part of the Neztarim corridor, which divides the Strip in two, allowing the people of Gaza to begin returning north. The process will be monitored by a group of foreign contractors, most likely American, who are currently being deployed in the area: delays are therefore possible.
The sustainability of the agreement today is essential: the offensive that Israel has been launching in Jenin, in the West Bank, for days makes it even more fragile than it already is. This was understood by the families of the hostages, who yesterday protested by blocking the Tel Aviv-Jerusalem highway to demand that everyone return home, not just the four today. The same applies to the tension on the northern border, towards Lebanon: Israel was supposed to withdraw today according to the agreement with Beirut. But yesterday it announced that it will not do so for another thirty days, citing as the reason the inability of the Lebanese Armed Forces to control the terrain.