Russian and US officials meet in Saudi Arabia for peace talks, Kiev absent

After a long period of frozen relations, representatives of the US and Russia want to meet for talks on Ukraine. But this is not necessarily positive news for Ukraine and Europe, experts say.

It's been rumored for a while, but now it's become a reality: This Tuesday, a meeting between delegations from the US and Russia begins in the Saudi Arabian capital, Riyadh, to discuss the war in Ukraine. This is the first meeting between the US and Russia since the start of Russia's offensive war in Ukraine. But Kiev will not be included in this meeting.

The Saudi government confirmed the planned meeting. The US government will be represented by Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Advisor Mike Waltz and Special Envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff. According to a Kremlin spokesman, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and a senior adviser to President Vladimir Putin, Yuri Ushakov, traveled on Monday.

What will be discussed?

A meeting with US representatives is scheduled for Tuesday, during which the main topic will be the "restoration of Russian-American relations", Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, as reported by the AFP news agency. According to the news agencies, "possible talks on a resolution on Ukraine" will also be aimed at. A possible meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin will also be prepared. Moscow and Washington want to leave behind the "abnormal relations" of recent times, Foreign Minister Lavrov said.

Jonas Driedger, a research fellow in the "International Security" program at the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF), believes that this meeting is a very favorable move for Russia in the first place. "From a Russian perspective, this direct meeting with high-ranking US representatives, even excluding Europe and Ukraine, is a success in itself," he tells DW. "Meeting as equals with the US has long been a goal, from which Putin can also hope to use Trump to exert pressure on Ukraine and NATO's European partners. It is unclear whether these hopes will be fulfilled," Driedger says.

What is Ukraine's position?

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he will not accept any possible agreements between the US and Russia regarding the war in his country. "Ukraine considers any agreement on Ukraine without Ukraine as a deal without results," Zelensky told reporters during a visit to the United Arab Emirates.

Zelenskyy stated that Ukraine was not informed about the Russian-American meeting this Tuesday in Saudi Arabia and will not participate in it.

What is known about Trump's plans?

US President Donald Trump last week unexpectedly held a phone conversation with Kremlin leader Vladimir Putin, and according to him, they agreed to start "immediately" talks regarding the future of Ukraine.

What exactly the content of the talks on Tuesday will be is still unclear. But for a week now, information has been leaking from the Ukrainian news portal strana.today, which suggests that it is likely a “100-day plan” for peace in Ukraine. However, no such plan has been officially confirmed yet. If you believe this information, a ceasefire could be established in Ukraine on April 20, which would freeze the front line in eastern Ukraine.

According to this information, this "100-day plan" also foresees the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Russian Kursk region. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj should also be forced to recognize Russian sovereignty over the occupied Ukrainian territory so far.

According to US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, a lasting peace “must include security guarantees to ensure that the war does not start again.” He sees this as the task of “capable European and non-European troops.” According to the Strana agency, these troops should monitor a neutral demilitarized zone along the frozen front line after the ceasefire is established.

US troops are not an option for the Trump administration. Nor is NATO a suitable partner for sending a peacekeeping force. This force could be organized "outside the alliance." Hegseth did not comment on what this force would be like.

Expert Driedger from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) considers some parts of this plan to be “catastrophic if implemented.” “State sovereignty and the principle of not forcibly moving state borders are fundamental pillars of our already shaky world order.”

How successful can this meeting be?

Experts are more critical of the meeting. Stefan Meister from the German Foreign Policy Association told DW that it is still too early for talks, because the basic conditions have not been clarified and there has been no coordination with Ukraine so far. "It seems like Trump will quickly close the Russia/Ukraine topic," Meister notes, adding that Trump is not interested in what negative consequences a bad deal without security guarantees could have for Ukraine, for Europe and for the world.

Washington is ready to resolve in the talks the fundamental positions, such as Ukraine's non-membership in NATO and the relinquishment of territories. This will strengthen Russia's position in the negotiations, says Meister. "The bad negotiating position that the Trump team is putting Ukraine and itself in shows how little interest the US leadership has in a lasting peace and ceasefire."

Driedger from the Peace Research Institute Frankfurt (PRIF) also underlines: "There is a serious scenario in which Ukraine and perhaps some European countries will not accept the results of this meeting. If Trump is even remotely aiming for a sustainable solution, he should at least coordinate before starting the talks."/DW