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The Fukushima scenario? What if the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant blows up?

2023-07-06 18:49:14Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA LILIA RZHEUTSKA
The Fukushima scenario? What if the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant blows up?
Did Russia mine the nuclear power plant in Zaporizhia?

Kiev warns that Russian soldiers may have planted mines in two blocks of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. An explosion can release radioactive radiation.

As early as the first months of the occupation of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant in 2022, the Ukrainian company Energoatom reported that the Russian military may have mined the plant and the shore of the Kahovka reservoir, whose water is used to cool the plant. After the destruction of the dam wall by the Russian army in early June, Kiev announced that the occupiers had also mined the cooling basin. Now the Ukrainian General Staff warns that the Russians have attached "objects similar to explosive devices" to two blocks of the nuclear power plant.

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported in late June that it had found no signs of mines or other explosives at the nuclear plant. At the same time, IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi said the agency's experts would need additional access to the nuclear plant for a more comprehensive inspection. The IAEA referred to its previous reports that the power plant had been mined externally and in some places internally.

The cooling system is the weak point

Olha Kozharna, a Ukrainian expert on nuclear safety, points out that the mining of important cooling zones poses a direct threat to the power plant. Thus, the cooling pond water plays a crucial role. It is used to cool the reactor rods so they don't melt from overheating.

The Zaporizhia plant consists of six units that have not been in operation since last fall. Five of them are cold. As Dmytro Humenyuk of the Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety of Ukraine explains, even though they have been shut down, they need water for cooling because the reactor rods continue to emit heat. According to him, the water in the cold blocks is heated up to 70 degrees Celsius, while in the hot ones, but turned off, up to 280 degrees.

According to experts, if the cooling system goes out, a breakdown will occur in a cold block after eight days. In a hot reactor, you only have 27 hours to prevent a radioactive leak. "I think that all this is happening - all this blackmail and threats to stop the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian army in this region," says Olha Kozharna.

The Fukushima scenario in Zaporizhia?

An explosion in any part of the cooling system at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant could lead to a Fukushima-like scenario, experts say. In 2011, cooling of three reactors at a Japanese nuclear power plant was disrupted by a tsunami following an earthquake and subsequent flooding. This led to a meltdown and the release of radioactive radiation. "As a result, an evacuation zone was created, which people had to leave. But three years later, they returned due to low radiation exposure, and now only a third of that zone remains," explains Mark Zheleznyak , a professor at the Institute of Environmental Radioactivity at Fukushima University (IER).

The Fukushima scenario? What if the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant blows up?
A tsunami led to a disaster at the Fukushima nuclear power plant in Japan

According to him, a terrorist attack by the Russian occupiers on the cooling system of the reactors in Zaporizhzhia would not have catastrophic consequences. "There would be no radiation catastrophe, because there can be no release of radioactive iodine in a detached block," the scientist emphasizes and advises not to panic and buy potassium iodide tablets, which are supposed to protect the thyroid glands from radioactive iodine.

Other scenarios of a possible accident

The Center for Nuclear and Radiation Safety in Ukraine has published two scenarios for a possible accident at the nuclear power plant. In the first, the reactor's one-meter-thick protective shell would remain intact and only melt the plant below. This could happen if the power were to go out completely or the cooling system was damaged. According to scientists, such a scenario would contaminate an area of ​​2.5 kilometers around the nuclear power plant with radioactive rays. "This would normally only affect power plant personnel. In this case, people should go outside, only within a protective zone. Taking iodine for prophylactic reasons is not necessary," the center said in a statement.

The other scenario would be an accident of a reactor with a damaged containment shell. "In this scenario, radiation exposure will affect a larger area and have worse consequences. The area of ​​contamination depends on weather conditions," the center explains.

Ivan Kovalets, an expert in environmental informatics from the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, says that according to his calculations, in a worst-case scenario, there could be severe consequences in an area of ​​up to 20 kilometers around the power plant, in depending on the wind direction. "In this case, an immediate evacuation of people will be needed," says the expert. But even in areas up to 550 kilometers from the power plant, there may be certain consequences for people's health. "At such distances, however, there is no need for immediate countermeasures or evacuation," Kowalez said./ DW


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