Assad's fall from power also deals a major blow to Russia and Iran: What is expected to happen now?

2024-12-08 19:21:29Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Syrians celebrating

Syrian rebels said they had ousted President Bashar al-Assad after seizing control of Damascus on Sunday, forcing him to flee and ending his family's autocratic rule after more than 14 years of civil war. The rebels also dealt a major blow to the influence of Russia and Iran in Syria's heartland - allies that had supported al-Assad during critical periods of the conflict.

Syrians took to the streets on Sunday to celebrate the end of the Assad family's 50-year iron rule, after a surprise advance by rebels who reached the capital in a matter of days, now raising questions about the future of the country and the wider region.

Crowds gathered in central Damascus squares waving the Syrian flag, scenes reminiscent of the early days of the Arab Spring uprising, before a brutal government crackdown began that plunged the country into a nearly 14-year civil war.

Others looted the presidential palace and the Assad family residence after President Bashar al-Assad and other top officials fled the country, their whereabouts unknown. Russia, a close ally, said al-Assad fled the country after negotiations with rebel groups and had given instructions to transfer power peacefully.

Syrian state television broadcast a video statement early Sunday from a rebel group saying al-Assad had been ousted from power and all prisoners had been released. They called on people to preserve the institutions of the “free Syrian state.”

The rebels said they released people held in the notorious Saydnaya prison, where rights groups say thousands were tortured and killed.

Rebel commander Anas Salkhadi, who appeared on state television later in the day, sought to reassure Syria's religious and ethnic minorities, saying: "Syria is for everyone, without exceptions. Syria is for the Druze, the Sunnis, the Alawites and all sects."

As Syrians celebrated, Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali called for free elections.

Jalali also said he had been in contact with rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golan to discuss managing the transition period, marking a significant development in efforts to shape Syria's political future.

"I was honestly surprised by how quickly it happened. I didn't expect it to take just ten days for the rebels who left Idlib to reach Damascus. But it was a big move. Iran and Russia have been weakened by these developments because al-Assad has been their main ally for decades. I think for Russia, the interest is to maintain a base in the heart of the Middle East. And that's why I predict that Russia is open to some kind of negotiations with the Golan and with Turkey. I think Iran will have a harder time," says Andre Banks, a Syria expert at the Giga Institute for Middle East Studies in Hamburg.

“The al-Assad regime was rotten from within and corrupt, like a mafia state. There was very little real loyalty. So this whole system was held together by fear. And then of course we have Russia. In recent days Russia has removed its ships from the military base in Tartous. Also, high-ranking military personnel have left. Iran has provided some security, but they are no longer providing assistance. Hezbollah has been greatly weakened and had withdrawn from some positions even around Aleppo because of the war with Israel after October 7. All of these elements have led to a weakening of Assad’s power,” says Carsten Wieland, former senior adviser to the UN special envoy to Syria.

The end of al-Assad's rule deals a major blow to Iran and its allies, already weakened by more than a year of conflict with Israel. The rebels now face the task of overcoming major problems in a country torn apart by war and still divided among various armed factions.

Turkish-backed opposition fighters are battling US-allied Kurdish forces in the north, and the Islamic State group is still active in some remote areas.

The rebels are led by the group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, which has its origins in al-Qaeda and is considered a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Nations.

Abu Mohammed al-Golani, a former al-Qaeda commander who cut ties with the group years ago, says he favors religious pluralism and tolerance, leads the largest rebel faction, and is ready to work on the future direction of the country./ VOA

Video