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Aging population, large increase in the number of Europeans over 65 by 2100

2024-05-09 13:50:33Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Aging population, large increase in the number of Europeans over 65 by 2100

Europeans are aging and this will bring about a significant change in the composition and corresponding needs of their societies, as well as serious implications for European economies. By 2100, almost 10% of the total population in the European Union will be over 85, according to research by the Bruegel Institute, in Brussels.

The gradual retirement of the generation of the so-called 'baby boomers', ie. those born between 1946 and 1964, will also have an impact on European policies. For example, the EU's stated objectives for the green and digital transition will not be achieved unless the aging population and the subsequent shift in the working-age population are taken into account. The authors of the report admit, however, that the increase in life expectancy is a success of past European policies, combined with other factors, but emphasize the challenges that arise, especially for pension systems.

According to survey data, the number of people aged 65 and over, the average retirement age in the EU, is expected to increase from 36% in 2022 to 55% in 2050 and 65% in 2100. For example, while in 2022 were about 2.7 workers - per older person - in the EU, this number will decrease to 1.5 in 2100. Three factors explain this trend: increased life expectancy, the significant contraction of the working-age population between 2022 and 2070 - and third, projected migration flows will no longer compensate for the aging population trend.

The "gap" between northern and southern European countries causes a special sensation. There are already more people aged 85+ compared to the working-age population in southern Europe than in the north. This change is expected to become more visible in the future. This age pyramid will have serious effects on the labor market, on social security systems, but also on cohesion policy.

In some Member States, however, the primary pension system operates on a pay-as-you-go basis, meaning that workers' pension contributions are used to fund the pensions of current retirees. Demographic changes suggest that a relatively smaller workforce will be supported by a larger retiree population.

The Commission forecasts an increase in average EU public pension expenditure from 11.4% of GDP in 2022 to 12.1% by 2045.


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