Scientists warn that a "Super El Nino" could develop in the coming years and could be among the strongest in recent decades, increasing the risk of extreme heat waves, wildfires, droughts and floods in many parts of the world.
Faced with this scenario, a new study published in the scientific journal Science Advances has examined a highly controversial idea: the use of solar geoengineering to mitigate the impact of the phenomenon.
Researchers from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography analyzed a technique known as “marine cloud brightening.” The method consists of spraying particles into clouds over the ocean so that they reflect more sunlight back into space and temporarily lower the temperature of the Earth’s surface.
Because of the potential risks, the researchers did not conduct real-world experiments. Instead, they used climate models based on the massive fires that swept through Australia in 2019-2020. Smoke from those fires created more reflective clouds, which helped cool the Pacific and contributed to La Nina-like conditions.
According to simulations, if this technique were used in the early stages of a Super El Nino, it could reduce the most severe impacts of this phenomenon by up to 40 percent and strengthen the cooling effects of La Nina.
However, the authors of the study themselves emphasize that they are not recommending the implementation of this technology, but only opening the way for further research.
"This is just a proof of concept. The only thing we've shown is that it's worth studying further," said climatologist Kate Ricke, one of the study's authors.
Other experts warn that the technology to implement this method does not yet exist on the scale needed and that the consequences could be unpredictable. Some fear that climate intervention could trigger a La Nina much stronger than any previously recorded event, with severe consequences such as extreme rainfall, flooding and drought in various regions.
In addition to the technical challenges, ethical dilemmas remain: who would decide whether such technology should be used and whether it would distract from the main objective – reducing greenhouse gas emissions that are driving global warming.
Scientists agree that, for now, the safest solution to curbing climate change remains reducing pollution and emissions, while geoengineering is still considered an experimental field that requires much more study before it can be considered for practical use.