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Trump who? Putin 'likely to escalate war' in Ukraine

2026-07-10 19:34:14Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

President Vladimir Putin is rejecting calls to negotiate peace with Kiev, three sources close to the Kremlin told Reuters, with recent Ukrainian drone attacks on Russia's oil refineries and ports strengthening his determination to continue the war for the time being.

Two of the sources, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Putin is likely to escalate the conflict, which has now entered its fifth year.

One of them, who meets regularly with the president, described a "high probability" of escalation in the coming months.

The comments come after US President Donald Trump said on Monday that Putin wanted the war to end and that a solution was "closer than people think."

Trump held separate phone calls with Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, last week. He met with Zelenskiy at the NATO summit on Wednesday, where the Ukrainian president said they discussed “ideas to bring peace closer.”

One of the people familiar with Putin’s thinking said he had “strengthened himself” to achieve the main objective of capturing the rest of Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, where Russian advances have slowed this year. The same source said Putin recently rebuked a group of advisers who suggested a compromise based on a ceasefire along the current front lines. The second source said Putin believes Russia will soon capture Donbas.

The Russian president publicly rejected a call by Zelenskiy in June for a meeting and a ceasefire.

“Russia is ready for a peaceful solution, but has sufficient capabilities to act independently and continue the special military operation,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said in response to a request for comment for this article.

In response to a request for comment to Zelenskiy's office, a senior Ukrainian official said that Kiev's intelligence reports in recent months reflected that Putin was preparing for further steps towards war rather than peace, including new operations in Ukraine or a possible attack on another European country.

Some Western military analysts believe that Russia would need a compulsory conscription of men of fighting age to achieve its goal of taking over Donbas.

Conscription is a politically unpopular move that Putin has been reluctant to make since the beginning of the war.

Russian military experts have increasingly discussed escalation in public, including the possibility of striking European targets, such as NATO bases in the Baltic states.

Such a move would risk bringing Russia into direct confrontation with the US-led alliance, testing NATO's commitment that an attack on one member nation constitutes an attack on all.

Russia may seek to sow tensions within NATO with isolated attacks, comparable to a recent Russian drone attack on Romania, according to Jack Watling of the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a defense and security think tank in London.

"The Russians would not aim for a war with NATO. But this could be used to divide NATO about how to respond," Watling said.

He added that high tensions with NATO could give Putin a political justification within Russia for military recruitment.


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