From invasion to economic pressure, scenarios like how Trump could take Greenland

In recent weeks, US President-elect Donald Trump has expressed a strong interest in taking control of Greenland, an autonomous Danish territory in the Arctic and the world's largest island. The interest dates back to before his first term in 2019, when he expressed an intention to purchase it. However, last week, Trump did not rule out the possibility of using economic or military force to take control of the island.

The reaction of Danish and European officials was negative, emphasizing that Greenland is not for sale, demanding the preservation of its territorial integrity. But, in such an unusual scenario, with two NATO allies at odds, how could such a territory, 80% covered in ice but with great mineral wealth, become an object of conflict?

Trump's Loss of Interest

There is some speculation that Trump's move may have been a tactic to push Denmark to increase Greenland's security in the face of threats from Russia and China. Last month, Denmark announced a $1.5 billion military package for the Arctic, an announcement that came hours after Trump's comments.

For some experts, this may have been an opportunity for Greenland to seek greater international authority, opening the way for a step towards independence.

Consensus on Independence and the connection with the USA

Although Greenland's independence has been on the agenda for many years, a referendum on independence may not happen for a long time. The people of Greenland are seeking guarantees to maintain the subsidies they receive from Denmark, which help fund their healthcare and social welfare systems.

Another possibility is for Greenland to seek a closer relationship with the US, similar to what Pacific islands like the Marshall Islands and Palau have. However, Denmark has opposed such a status for Greenland and the Faroe Islands, although it currently has more flexibility on the issue.

Despite aspirations for independence, it has become clear that the US cannot afford to abandon Greenland. In World War II, the US took control of the island and has seen it as vital to its security. A 1951 agreement gave the US full rights to use military bases on the island, while maintaining de facto control of the territory.

Economic Pressure and Tariff Threats from Trump

An economic threat could be one of the options Trump could use to push Denmark to make concessions on Greenland. Trump could threaten to impose high tariffs on Danish and European goods, demanding that Denmark compromise on the territory. Analysts say such measures could significantly affect Denmark's economic growth, including the pharmaceutical sector, and could serve as a push to force Denmark to make concessions.

Military Invasion – A Possible Scenario?

A more extreme option that could be considered is the use of military force. The United States already has bases and troops in Greenland, giving it de facto control. However, the use of military force by the US would create an international incident and could cause tensions within NATO, activating Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. If one NATO country were to attack another, then the entire alliance could collapse.

Ultimately, any move by the US to take control of Greenland would have major consequences for international relations, as well as for the integrity of NATO and the relationship between the two allied states.