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Institute for the Study of War: Iranian attacks on Israel, same pattern as Russian on Kiev

2024-04-15 09:08:59Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Institute for the Study of War: Iranian attacks on Israel, same pattern as
Iranian attacks on Israel

The Iranian attack against Israel had almost the same project as Russia in Ukraine. But despite this, the damage to Israel was more limited than expected, perhaps because the Iranians underestimated the country's vast defensive capabilities compared to Kiev. Tehran will learn the lesson and work to improve the ability to penetrate Israeli defenses, as the Russians did.

This is what the analysts of the American research institute Isw (Institute for the Study of War) write. The Iranian drones were launched well ahead of the ballistic missiles, perhaps in the hope that they would arrive in Israel's air defense window at about the same time as the cruise missiles.

The Russians have used this approach several times against Ukraine. The goal is for cruise missiles and slower drones to distract and bypass air defenses to allow ballistic missiles, which are much harder to shoot down, to reach their targets.

The Iranians likely expected that few, if any, of their cruise missiles and drones would hit their targets, but they probably hoped that a significantly higher percentage of their ballistic missiles would. In reality, only a few ballistic missiles have penetrated Israeli air defenses and hit near Israeli military bases, out of about 120 launched by the Iranians.

" Ukrainian air defenses have averaged interception rates of only about 46 percent of Russia's ballistic missiles during recent major strikes, the Iranians probably expected Israeli rates to be higher than Ukrainian ones, but not more than 90 percent The Russians have never launched so many large ballistic missiles in a single attack against Ukraine ," the think tank's website says.

Ukraine often intercepts more than 75% of Russian cruise missiles and drones, but many of these intercepts occur within the air defense umbrella that also covers ballistic missile defense. Therefore, the Iranians probably expected that at least some of their drones and cruise missiles would interfere with Israeli ballistic missile targeting.

" Iran's ability to penetrate Israeli air defenses with even a small number of large ballistic missiles poses serious security concerns for Israel ," ISW says.


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