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DW: Will Serbia resolve the Kosovo issue in 2023?

2023-01-03 09:37:12Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
DW: Will Serbia resolve the Kosovo issue in 2023?
Aleksandar Vucic

Kosovo, sanctions against Russia and some other developments are the main challenges for the Serbian government in 2023. The pressure is increasing.

The year 2022 was announced in Serbia as a turning point and dramatic at the beginning, but in the end it ended as a relatively calm year. This, of course, does not mean that there have not been warnings and dramatic actions, increased combat readiness and moments that can be described as serious incidents, especially in Kosovo, but at least for now things have been kept under control.

Since 2022 was also an election year, it was expected that this would cause additional tensions, as there were warnings that protests would come the day after the elections. However, the entire pre-election campaign, as well as the post-election period, passed without much friction. The beginning of the conflict in Ukraine coincided with the election campaign and the seriousness of that tragedy was also reflected in the behavior of the participants in political life in Serbia. This significantly affected the dynamics and level of political tensions in Serbia, so neither the government nor the opposition took any additional steps that would significantly worsen the situation.

This fact made it even easier for the government in Serbia to continue authoritarian rule, because the opposition positioned itself as a political actor that does not want to make too many waves at a time when the head of state is under great foreign pressure. A part of the opposition has undoubtedly put pressure on the authorities regarding the sanctions against Russia. But even these were lukewarm warnings, which could not significantly influence the decisions of the president of Serbia, Aleksandar Vučić.

Unity of power and opposition for Kosovo

On the other hand, the provocative actions of Pristina and Albin Kurti, as they were called in Belgrade, were met with the unanimous condemnation of the government and the opposition, and this was the theme that dominated the second half of the year. Only foreign pressure, or perhaps just luck, led to the avoidance of a more serious escalation of the situation in Kosovo.

As expected, the issue of Kosovo was not resolved during the year 2022. According to an unwritten tradition, this year, i.e. 2023, was declared a turning point, like many other years, for the final solution of the Kosovo issue. Therefore, these expectations are not new, but unlike previous years, this time the West acts and sounds determined to finish the job in 2023. How important will this year really be, or will it just be a another bombastic announcement?

Dushan Spasojevic, from the Faculty of Political Sciences, recalls to DW that "many times in the past years it seemed that this problem was close to being solved. This did not happen, but now we may be closer to the solution. Of course, we do not know if this will happen, but now we have some external structures that think now is a good time to exert pressure".

But, on the other hand, continues Spasojevic, "we have two leaders, Vučić and Kurt, who are quite stubborn and have some calculations of their own that do not fit with external plans. Here I see the biggest obstacle, if there is a sufficient offer good that will satisfy both leaders. I think there are some limits to this pressure - you can't expect sanctions from Serbia, for example, why doesn't it want to accept an agreement with Kosovo that doesn't suit it. That's why it's it is possible that the resolution of the case will be extended", Spasojevic told DW.

The trend of releases continues

Political analyst Dragomir Angjelkovic believes that "some important things have happened in the past years, but unfortunately to the detriment of Serbia". The authorities of Serbia for years have made concessions that significantly worsen the position of Serbia. Therefore, I think that in a way the assertions that some of the past years will be decisive have come true. That trend will probably continue - I do not believe that the government in Belgrade will fulfill all that is asked of it. But the policy of concessions will continue again, which will reduce Serbia's position in relation to Kosovo to an even lower level," Angjelkovic told DW.

"I don't expect a complete capitulation about Kosovo in 2023, but some steps will be taken towards the capitulation, which is still kept secret", notes Anjelković and adds that "he does not believe in the dates that have been mentioned as a deadline for solving the problems of Kosovo. But I believe in political games in which the authorities in Belgrade get what is demanded of them, while in return the authorities succeed in deceiving the citizens of Serbia".

Progress towards the EU = sanctions against Russia?

Sanctions against Russia are the next big topic expected to be resolved in 2023. Right now, the Serbian authorities categorically refuse to impose sanctions on Russia, but Western pressure is intensifying in this area as well.

Belgrade seems convinced that it is insisting on this, but at certain moments the head of state seems to lose control and declares that "Serbia owes nothing to Russia in this regard, because Russia did not oppose the sanctions against Serbia in the 1990s." Serbian opinion is decidedly against such decisions, and for now this is probably the only reason preventing the Serbian authorities from joining the sanctions.

"The key point when Serbia will have to impose some sanctions is if there is progress in European integration", Dushan Spasojevic assesses. "As long as the current situation remains the same as until now, there is no particular reason for Belgrade to change its decision. "Serbia missed that opportunity to join the sanctions, and simply imposing sanctions now, or in a few months, would not yield the expected result," notes Spasojevic.

Aleksandar Vucic would have imposed sanctions a long time ago, if he was not afraid of the reaction of his citizens and voters, believes Dragomir Angjelkovic, who emphasizes that "the situation here is much clearer than with Kosovo, where manipulated. But here the question is quite clear, do you impose sanctions on Russia or not?"/DW


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