orenzo Cremonesei – Corriere della Sera
The war scenario in the Middle East is becoming increasingly dark, as the possibility of a ground intervention by the United States against Iran increases.
The rumored strategy includes threatening to invade Kharg Island, a vital hub for Iranian oil exports, as well as intensifying airstrikes across the country, with the aim of forcing Tehran to sit at the negotiating table from a position of weakness. However, recent developments show that a diplomatic solution seems distant.
Following Iran's rejection of a 15-point peace plan proposed by the US, which included, among other things, the complete abandonment of its nuclear program, the Iranian authorities have presented their counter-proposals, demanding war reparations and recognition of their sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. In this climate of tension, the US military presence in the region has increased significantly, reaching over 7,000 elite troops, which increases the likelihood of an imminent military operation.
Iran's deep distrust of Washington is another factor escalating the situation. Iranian leaders consider any offer from the US to be unreliable, citing previous surprise attacks during periods of negotiation.
As a result, Iran seems determined to wage a long and fierce resistance, also relying on the religious concept of martyrdom, which could include suicide attacks, sabotage of energy infrastructure, and destabilization of the Persian Gulf region.
On the other hand, Israel continues to maintain a tough stance towards Iran and its allies, showing no willingness to compromise and supporting the continuation of the military offensive. On the military front, a landing on Kharg Island may seem feasible for the US, which has air superiority and has already struck a large number of defensive targets in the area. The US forces include elite units such as paratroopers and marines, ready for rapid and coordinated operations.
However, the challenges on the ground remain great. Iran has prepared numerous defenses, including naval explosive devices and fortified underground positions, where Revolutionary Guard forces are stationed. Such an intervention could also have serious consequences for the global economy, as Iran has warned of blocking key sea routes for oil transportation, such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb.
Experts warn that a ground war in Iran could resemble the bitter experience of the United States in Iraq after 2003, where a quick military victory was followed by a long and bloody period of insurgency and terrorism. Also, developments in the war in Ukraine have shown the growing importance of drones in modern conflicts. Iran mass-produces these cheap and effective tools, making them a serious threat to any ground force.
If the conflict escalates further, the use of drones by Iranian forces, including coordinated attacks with small, hard-to-neutralize vehicles, could create a very dangerous situation for US troops. This raises fears that a military intervention could turn into a long and costly conflict, with unpredictable consequences for the region and beyond.