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ANALYSIS/ Kamala Harris mobilizes the Democrats, but can she win the elections?

2024-08-14 21:56:39Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Donald Trump / Kamala Harris

WASHINGTON – Since replacing President Joe Biden as the Democratic nominee for president, Vice President Kamala Harris has quickly consolidated support and energized a campaign that many Democratic leaders were worried about.

Ms Harris secured the votes of 4,567 delegates - or 99 per cent of participating delegates - winning the party's nomination in a virtual vote held this month.

The campaign, along with the Democratic National Committee and other joint fundraising committees, raised a historic $310 million in July, surpassing Republican nominee former President Donald Trump's fundraising effort that month. More than $200 million was raised for Ms. Harris's campaign in the first week of her candidacy.

"We've seen an uptick in support, a level of grassroots support — both organizationally and fundraising — that leads to electoral victory," says Ms. Harris's campaign spokesman, Kevin Munoz.

Optimism about the campaign is being reflected in the polls. After a series of polls that put her with strong showings in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, Ms. Harris now has a 55 percent chance of winning, says election data analyst Nate Silver.

He had predicted that Mr. Biden had a 27 percent chance of winning when he was the Democratic nominee for president.

However, Mr Trump's campaign insists that the core issues of the campaign have not changed.

"The fact that the Democrats fired one appointee and are replacing him with another does NOT change the discontent among voters about the economy, inflation, crime, open border issues, the cost of housing, not to mention worries about two foreign wars. ,” Mr. Trump campaign pollster Tony Fabrizio wrote in a filing.

Ms. Harris's "honeymoon" will soon be over, he says. "While the public polls may change in the short term and she may manage to consolidate the Democratic base a bit, Harris cannot change the fact of who she is and what she has done."

While the core issues may not have changed, discussion of them "was being overshadowed by concerns about Mr. Biden's age and his mental capacity," says Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

"Donald Trump has hit rock bottom and is now facing an opponent who is far more likable," he told VOA. "The Democrats are back in the game."

According to a new poll conducted by the Associated Press news agency and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research, candidate Harris is considered more honest, more committed to democracy and more disciplined than her Republican rival Donald Trump. But the two candidates enjoy a similar level of support among voters for their vision, resilience and ability to manage crises.

Nearly half of Americans say that Ms. Harris is better suited to terms such as "more committed to democracy" and "disciplined." About 4 in 10 Americans say Ms. Harris is interested "in the well-being of ordinary people," while about 3 in 10 say the same about Mr. Trump.

Ms. Harris, according to the poll, leads over Mr. Trump on issues related to race and inequality, abortion and health care policies. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump, according to a slightly larger number of American voters, is in a better position to manage the economy and the issue of immigration.

About 45 percent of Americans believe Mr. Trump would manage the economy better, compared to 38 percent who think Ms. Harris will have that ability.

The decisive states

In the United States, elections are not determined by popular vote but by electoral college votes, which are determined roughly in proportion to population. In all but two states, the candidate who receives the most votes in a state wins all of the electoral college votes.

Ms. Harris' team is investing heavily in campaign infrastructure, opening new offices, hiring new staff and engaging tens of thousands of volunteers in what are considered swing states that could decide the winner of the 2024 election — Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina and Georgia.

In 2020, victory in these seven states was secured by a margin of 3 percent or less. Currently, Ms. Harris is running slightly higher in the polls, but still within the statistical margin of error in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Mr Trump leads in Michigan, Nevada, Arizona and North Carolina. He is also ahead in Georgia.

According to Democratic strategist Julie Roginsky, it will be difficult for both Mr. Trump and Ms. Harris to win the election unless they secure victory in Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania has a total of 19 electoral college votes, the most of any swing state.

“If they lose in this state, they're going to have to win in most, if not all, of the other states. They include Arizona, Wisconsin, Georgia, Michigan and North Carolina,” Ms. Roginsky told VOA.

A candidate must secure at least 270 of the 538 electoral college votes to win. That means the candidate has to win more electoral college votes than his rival, says Rutgers University political science professor Kelly Dittmar.

"Winning in contested states with a high number of electoral college votes, such as Michigan and Pennsylvania — both states where Democrats have recently won statewide and where Mr. Biden swept to victory in 2020 — is a path of consistent through which Ms. Harris can prove successful,” Ms. Dittmar says.

In Michigan, a state with a large Arab-American population, Ms. Harris still has to convince more than 100,000 people who remain angry at the strong support that Mr. Biden's administration has given Israel. They were declared as "undecided" in the primary elections. Thirty members of the so-called National Movement of the Undefined have secured seats as delegates to the Democratic National Convention being held in Chicago next week.

Ms. Harris has to face the "Drop Biden" movement for the same reason.

"We are asking not to vote those who support or support what is currently happening in Gaza," said the spokesperson of this movement, Hudhayafah Ahmad, to VOA. "Frankly, that goes for (candidates) Kamala Harris and Donald Trump."

Inflation and immigration

While enthusiasm among Democrats has grown, Ms. Harris must respond to voter anger over high inflation, a problem Republicans blame on the Biden-Harris administration.

Earlier, Mr. Trump had a lead among voters on important economic issues. Several polls show that Americans believe they will be in a better financial position under Mr. Trump's administration than under Biden.

However, a Financial Times and University of Michigan poll published this week found that 41 per cent of respondents believe Mr Trump will manage the economy better, while 42 per cent believe Ms Harris will. to prove more capable – a figure seven points higher than the figures for Mr Biden in July.

The issue of immigration is another weak point for Mr. Biden and in this regard for Ms. Harris as well. Mr. Trump's campaign has sought to portray him as "in charge of the border," responsible for the "invasion," as they put it, of Central American migrants entering the United States through the Mexican border.

Her campaign is now aiming to present the candidate as someone who is pro-immigration but tough on law enforcement, emphasizing Ms. Harris' identity as the daughter of an immigrant couple and her experience as a former U.S. prosecutor. general of California, the state with the largest number of immigrants.

“I was a border state prosecutor,” Ms. Harris said at a recent campaign rally in Arizona, a hotly contested state where immigration is one of the top issues for voters. "I prosecuted international gangs, drug cartels and human traffickers. I prosecuted them case by case, and won.”

Will she win in November?

In such a close race in an ever-changing political environment, analysts are reticent to say that one of the candidates has secured victory.

Ms. Harris's campaign team says it believes this will be a very close election race, the winner of which will be decided by a small number of voters spread over just a few states.

Despite the mobilization and strengthened positions of Ms. Harris's campaign, according to her spokesperson Munoz, "we are not taking anything for granted."/ VOA


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