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ANALYSIS: Israel and Turkey risk heading towards collision

2025-07-04 18:34:45Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Erdogan and Netanyahu

The Financial Times reports that the 12-day war between Israel and Iran has rewritten the balance of power in the Middle East, bringing with it an emboldened Israel seeking to redefine the region, a weakened Iranian regime struggling to survive, and a US reluctant to plunge into another protracted conflict. But the most dangerous consequence may come not from clashes with Iran, but from an increasingly bitter rivalry between Israel and Turkey.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan, at a summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, reflected the new spirit in Ankara: “There is no Palestinian, Lebanese, Syrian, Yemeni or Iranian problem, but there is clearly an Israeli problem.”

This approach indicates a significant shift in Turkish thinking about Israel's role in the region. From a former ally, then rival, Israel is now openly perceived as an adversary.

According to the Financial Times , Ankara is increasingly concerned by Israel's newfound self-confidence and hegemonic role, a status that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan himself has coveted for years.

A close ally of his, Devlet Bahçeli, even recently accused Israel of trying to “encircle Anatolia” and destabilize Turkey. Once theoretical, these positions are now part of official Turkish discourse and the media.

But a similar obsession exists in Israel, where parts of the security apparatus see Turkey’s regional influence as a long-term threat “more dangerous than Iran.” Erdogan’s open support for Hamas has prompted a backlash from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government, leading to heated exchanges and Israeli efforts to deepen ties with the Syrian Kurds, long perceived as enemies by Ankara.

This conflict is based on both ideology and geopolitics.

Erdogan’s government has combined Sunni Islamist populism with Turkish nationalism, embodied in the “Century of Turkey” platform that aims to restore its regional power. Meanwhile, a right-wing coalition in Israel has an equally entrenched vision of military dominance in Lebanon, Gaza, and Syria.

These competing visions leave little room for compromise.

Syria is expected to be the main area of ??confrontation.

Since the fall of the Assad regime in late 2024, both countries have been trying to shape the new order. Turkey has expanded its influence by supporting its allies and controls large parts of northern Syria, with ambitions for a greater economic and military presence. Israel, on the other hand, has increased airstrikes and expressed support for Kurdish and Druze autonomy, viewing the new Syrian government with suspicion because of its jihadist links.

Tensions reached a peak in April, when Israel bombed a site where Turkey was planning to build a base. According to the Financial Times, a military contact line now exists between the two sides, but diplomatic relations are frozen. Ankara, meanwhile, has learned lessons from the war with Iran, starting to strengthen its defenses in the face of Israel's air and intelligence superiority.

US President Donald Trump, according to the Financial Times, should use his good relations with Netanyahu and Erdogan to manage this clash. A solution to the war in Gaza may ease Turkish discontent a little, but the long-standing rivalry between the two countries seems unlikely to die down.

For decades, the United States has treated Turkey and Israel as indispensable, if often difficult, allies and pillars of regional stability. Now, those two pillars are clashing.

With Iran weakened, Washington and its allies must understand that the next test of the Middle East may come precisely from the rivalry between its two closest partners.


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