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Should we be worried? Scientists assess the chances of an asteroid colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032

2025-02-04 18:15:35Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
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Astronomers have identified an asteroid, called 2024 YR4, which has a small chance of colliding with Earth on December 22, 2032, although experts stress that there is no room for panic.

While the discovery may sound like something out of a "bad Hollywood movie," astrophysicist Jonti Horner, a professor at the University of Southern Queensland, assured that there is no need to panic.

In an article Horner published Friday in The Conversation, a research-based news and analysis website, he stressed that learning the asteroid's trajectory remains crucial.

1 in 77 chance of collision

2024 YR4 was first discovered on December 27, 2023, by the ATLAS observatory telescope in Chile. Subsequent observations determined that the asteroid has a 1 in 77 chance of hitting Earth.

"Of course, this means there is still a 1 in 77 chance that the asteroid will hit Earth," Horner explained in the article.

According to him, current models show an uncertainty of about 100,000 kilometers in the asteroid's predicted position by 2032, placing Earth within its likely path.

Astronomers are trying to improve their calculations. "With each new observation of 2024 YR4, our knowledge of its orbit improves a little," Horner noted.

The asteroid will become too faint to observe, but another close approach in December 2028, at a distance of about 8 million kilometers, will provide a crucial opportunity to determine its exact trajectory.

Possible collision

Estimates suggest that 2024 YR4 is between 40 and 100 meters in diameter. Although it is much smaller than the 10-kilometer asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs 66 million years ago, it could still cause significant damage.

"If it's an asteroid with a pile of rocks, the impact would be similar to the Tunguska event in 1908," Horner explained, referring to the explosion in Siberia that destroyed 2,200 square kilometers of forest.

Historical asteroid impacts, such as the Tunguska explosion and the Chelyabinsk event in 2013, provide insight into possible outcomes.

The Chelyabinsk event injured about 1,500 people, due to shock waves and broken glass.

If 2024 YR4 were made of some solid metal rather than piles of rock, it could reach Earth without being affected by the atmosphere and cause an even more severe impact.

Final answers are expected in 2028.

Although the world will have to wait for observations in 2028 to confirm whether 2024 YR4 will hit Earth, Horner is cautious but pragmatic.

"At the end of that period, we will know for sure whether there will be a collision in 2032. And if there is a collision, we will be able to predict where the collision will occur on Earth, likely to an accuracy of a few tens of kilometers," says Horner.

For now, scientists will continue monitoring the asteroid, ensuring that humanity is prepared for any potential danger from space.


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