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Earthquakes in the Persian Gulf: What is expected to happen after the Emirates leave OPEC?

2026-04-29 17:41:51Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Earthquakes in the Persian Gulf: What is expected to happen after the Emirates

Riyadh has called an emergency summit. A new peace proposal from the Tehran regime is expected "within days."

The negotiators are still waiting. Donald Trump again declares victory online. And from the Gulf comes a big shock. Pakistan, which mediates between the United States and Tehran, is waiting for the ayatollahs to submit a new draft agreement, after Washington rejected the previous one, which proposed postponing the nuclear issue for a second time: it should arrive "within a few days."

In Truth, the American president claims to have received a message from the Iranians: They have communicated to us that their economy is collapsing.

However, the surprise came yesterday from the Emirates. That something was moving in the petro-monarchies was understood since this morning, when it was announced that Mohammed bin Salman, the crown prince and de facto leader of Saudi Arabia, had called an emergency summit of the member states of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). The meeting was held that same day in Jeddah.

According to al-Jazeera, the aim was to convey a strong sense of unity and find a solution to the Hormuz crisis. It is the first time that the leaders of the six member countries, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, the Emirates, Kuwait, Oman and Qatar, all oil exporters, have met in person since the war began.

For two months, they have been under attack from Tehran, which has launched missiles and drones against cities and oil pipelines and, by blocking the Strait, has crippled the economies of many countries in the region. The Emirates are the hardest hit. Iran has carried out more attacks against them than against Israel.

Then, at around 3pm, even before the heads of state arrived in Jeddah, another announcement came. It caused a political shock, but it also lowered oil prices. The Emirates is leaving OPEC, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, an institution much larger than the GCC, made up of 12 countries, including Iran. And which, above all, sets production quotas and oil prices for its members, acting as a kind of cartel. Abu Dhabi has also abandoned OPEC+, the expanded version that also includes Russia.

A blow to Riyadh

Not at all a “strong sense of unity.” Analysts quickly realized that Abu Dhabi's move was (also) a blow to Saudi Arabia, the country that in practice has the most weight in OPEC and that often dictates the line.

It is no coincidence that the other petro-monarchy to leave the organization also did so at a time of conflict with Riyadh. Qatar announced its departure in 2018 (which took effect only a year later), at the height of the crisis between the two countries. Even after the diplomatic rift was overcome, Doha did not return to the organization.

OPEC now loses about 15% of its production and, consequently, its power, and is faced with a “free player”, an exporting power that operates outside its constraints. That there were disagreements between Abu Dhabi and Riyadh was known. They are rivals in Yemen, in a proxy war where they support opposing militias, moreover, Saudi Arabia is building a military alliance with Pakistan, Turkey and former rival Qatar, while the Emirates is working on a coalition with Israel, India, Greece and Cyprus.

But the OPEC exit is a reaction born of Iranian aggression and the divisions among the Gulf countries, after an initial moment of unity. At the two extremes are Oman, which, in a compromise, accepts the ayatollahs' control over the strait, and the Emirates themselves, which are pushing for the Americans and Israelis to resume bombing to "finish the job." In between are Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which want to contain Tehran but do not fully trust the United States.

This division is also explained by an economic factor. According to a report by Goldman Sachs, not all petromonarchies suffer equally from the closure of the Strait. While the Emirates, Kuwait and Qatar have seen their oil revenues fall sharply, Oman is earning 50% more, as Tehran allows its ships to pass through. As for Riyadh, thanks to the pipelines, its exports are only partially dependent on Hormuz, so the flow has decreased, but this is offset by the increase in oil prices.

A gift to the USA

Above all, leaving OPEC is a way to reaffirm Abu Dhabi’s strong bond with the United States, at a time when other petro-monarchies are beginning to question it. Trump and Netanyahu’s attack on Iran, carried out without consulting Arab countries and with little regard for the fact that Gulf allies have suffered the consequences, and now, according to informed sources, some rulers are “rethinking” their relationship with Washington. Not the emir of Abu Dhabi.

Leaving OPEC allows him to increase oil production, an idea that appeals to the Emirates and even more to Trump, who wants lower energy prices. The tycoon now needs all the support he can get. His popularity hit an all-time low yesterday./ Corriere della Sera


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