Falling euro, touches the lowest level since January 4

2023-02-20 16:06:40Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Euro

This week, the euro has begun to fall, the exchange rate with the lek.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the European currency was exchanged on Monday at 115.44 ALL, marking the lowest level since January 4 of this year.

According to market agents, the exchange rate is showing characteristics similar to the last quarter of last year, with a constant supply of euros and no major movements in the demand for the European currency.

The statistics available until the end of the 9th month of last year showed that the current account deficit resulted in similar levels compared to the previous year, but on the other hand foreign direct investments resulted in the highest historical levels.

Bank of Albania statistics showed that bank deposits in foreign currency grew at high rates last year as well. In particular, deposits in euro increased by 17%.

Indirectly, this shows that foreign currency inflows into the economy were high, not counting the significant informal inflows, which, according to market agents, have an important role in the performance of the exchange rate between the euro and the lek.

Theoretically, the strengthening of the lek may have been influenced by the consolidating side of the monetary policy, as well as the fiscal one. Last year, the Bank of Albania increased the base interest rate at a fast rate, taking it from 0.5% to 2.75%. Meanwhile, although the final budget indicators for 2022 have not yet been published, by the end of November the budget deficit was at significantly lower levels compared to the previous year.

Data from the Bank of Albania showed that at the end of last year 2022 the annual growth of the monetary aggregate M2, which approximates the money supply in lek (stripped of government accounts and deposits), dropped to the lowest level since 2018. This shows a slowdown in the growth of the supply of lek, this factor also has a potential impact on the foreign exchange rate.

Leku vazhdon të shfaqë pozita të forta, në linjë me tendencën e vërejtur në vitet e fundit, madje në nivele më të mira edhe se parashikmet afatshkurtra të analistëve financiarë.

Analiza periodike e Raiffeisen Research për kursin e këmbimit valutor mes euros dhe lekut në muajin janar parashikonte që në tremujorin e parë 2023 që raporti mes monedhave të lëvizte në intervalin mes 116 dhe 118 lekëve, ndërsa parashikimi pikësor për kursin mesatar është i vendosur pranë nivelit të 117.5 lekëve.

Megjithatë, edhe në analizën e mësipërme nënvizohej se risqet për shmangie nga intervali i parashikuar janë kryesisht në favor të lekut, çka do të nënkuptonte një rënie të Euros në nivele edhe më të ulëta.

According to data from the Bank of Albania, the average exchange rate of the euro for the year 2022 decreased to 119 alleks, 122.5 alleks that had been in 2021. But, the second half of the year brought an apparent tendency towards a higher appreciation of local currency.

For the last quarter of 2022, the euro was exchanged at an average of 116.4 ALL, while for the month of December the average exchange rate was even lower, at the level of 114.9 ALL. On December 28, the euro reached an all-time low of 112.83 ALL./Monitor

Falling euro, touches the lowest level since January 4

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