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Despite the sluggish sales outlook, hopes for the eurozone economy are rising

2024-01-09 11:03:39Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Despite the sluggish sales outlook, hopes for the eurozone economy are rising

A leading indicator of sentiment within the EU and eurozone saw a rise in optimism over the economy and employment expectations, despite slower sales growth.

The Economic Sentiment Index (ESI) in December increased from 93.8 to 95.6 in the EU and from 93.8 to 96.4 in the eurozone. The EU consists of countries that meet specific membership criteria, while the eurozone includes countries that use the euro as their main currency.

The ESI measures confidence across sectors, with manufacturers contributing 40%, followed by service providers at 30%, consumers at 20% and both retailers and builders at 5% each.

Across all major EU economies, Italy saw an increase of 2.6 points in the ESI, while Spain and Germany rose by 2.4 points. In contrast, the Netherlands fell by 1.1 points and France had a slight drop of 0.5 points. Poland's sentiment remained relatively stable, rising by just 0.2 points.

The employment expectations indicator (EEI), consolidating the expected hiring plans of managers in industry, services, retail trade and construction, also showed a positive outlook. It rose by a modest 0.5 points in the EU, reaching 102.4, and was almost unchanged in the euro area, showing only an increase of 0.1 points.

Growth was fueled by brighter hiring intentions among utility and construction managers, though offset slightly by less optimistic industry forecasts. Hiring intentions among retail executives remained fairly stable.

However, the outlook for retail sales in the eurozone was not as positive, falling 0.3% in November compared to last month after a revised 0.4% increase in October. This was in line with market expectations and marked the sharpest drop in retail sales volume since August.

Sales of food, beverages and tobacco fell by 0.1%, the second consecutive monthly decline. Non-food sales, excluding fuel, also fell 0.4%, particularly impacted by a 1.2% drop in online retail sales.

Germany saw a 2.5% drop in retail sales volume, while France's 0.4% increase helped offset the decline. Annual retail sales fell 1.1%, extending a 14-period contraction.


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