From the surveys I have conducted over the years, I have found a strong statistical connection between family political roots and the tendency to vote in Tirana Municipality. After the elections of April 25, 2021, I conducted a rigorous survey in the entire territory of Tirana Municipality (including the villages), which confirms the above-mentioned statistical correlation.
But before we get into the statistics, let's deal with the history of Tirana in the following three paragraphs.
When Tirana became the capital a century ago, the vast majority of politicians and state officials came from other big cities, because it was just a small town, connected by a bad road to the previous capital - Durrës. By 1938, the population of Tirana tripled and the political-administrative-economic elite of the then Albania was almost completely concentrated in the capital.
With the arrival of the Communist Party in power in 1944, the previous political-administrative-economic elite was persecuted, and its place was taken by the new communist elite, coming mostly from the South. During the 45 years of communist rule, arrivals from the districts to the capital were strictly controlled by the communist regime, and as a result, the percentage of families that had members in "good jobs" - in ministries, state agencies, key positions in enterprises - increased significantly. state, management of party organizations, institutions, etc. etc.
After 1990, with the fall of the communist regime, Tirana has had strong external and internal migratory movements. However, internal movements have prevailed with arrivals from all districts and from all political family orientations – the previous migration controls disappeared altogether. Consequently, from the 1989 Census to the 2001 Census, the population of Tirana Municipality doubled. Currently, it has almost quadrupled compared to 1989 (the recent growth was also influenced by the administrative growth of the municipality's territory, which now includes the surrounding former municipalities).
In the gigantic demographic amalgam that has been created in Tirana, there are about 582 thousand voters from different backgrounds. Of these, according to the aforementioned survey, about 21% are voters from families in good positions with power before 1990 (or about 120 thousand voters, by rough extrapolation); about 68% are from families without political affiliation before 1990 (or about 397 thousand voters, with rough extrapolation); and about 11% are from families persecuted before 1990 (or about 64 thousand voters, by rough extrapolation).
And how did these Tirana voters vote on April 25, 2021?
Ndër zgjedhësit nga familje në pozita të mira me pushtetin e para 1990-ës, mbizotëruan ata që votuan për PS+PSD (rreth 71 mijë). Ndër zgjedhësit nga familje pa anesi politike para 1990-ës, mbizotëruan ata që nuk votuan fare (rreth 154 mijë). Ndër zgjedhësit nga familje të persekutuara para 1990-ës, mbizotëruan ata që votuan për PD-An (34 mijë). Duke përmbledhur, për çdo 100 zgjedhës që votuan vjet për PD-An, 140 të tjerë votuan për PS+PSD (shihni tabelën shoqëruese).
Me pak fjalë, ndërlidhja e fortë statistikore mes rrënjëve politike familjare dhe prirjes së votimit në Bashkinë Tiranë ka vazhduar deri vjet, tre dekada pas rrëzimit të regjimit të mëparshëm. Ose thënë ndryshe, dardhat kanë vazhduar të bien nën dardhë…
And if the pears will continue to fall under the pear on the next May 14, whoever wins the primaries of Tirana will have a hard time facing Veliaj.