Europe realized that the US had left it alone

Jon Henley – The Guardian

They gathered smiling, but the task they had undertaken was enormous. After dozens of summits in which a hesitant and divided EU had failed to agree on any common plan to end the war in Ukraine, this meeting was suddenly and crucially different.

The leaders of France, Germany, Poland, Italy, Spain and Denmark, along with the British prime minister and the heads of NATO, the European Commission and the European Council, arrived in Paris shaken by a historic week.

Last Monday, US Vice President JD Vance told Europe that “over-regulation” of potentially harmful technologies was wrong. Two days later, Donald Trump called Vladimir Putin to launch talks between the US and Russia to end the war.

On the same day, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told his European counterparts at a meeting in Brussels that the US was no longer “primarily focused” on Europe’s security and the continent would have to take the lead in defending Ukraine.

On Friday came Vance’s punch. A blistering ideological assault accusing European democracies of suppressing free speech, pandering to multiculturalism, and alienating voters out of fear. Forget Russia: the real threat to Europe, he said, was “from within.”

The US vice president then refused to meet with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz. Instead, he met with Alice Weidel, the leader of the far-right AfD, a party that the German security agency is monitoring as a potential threat to democracy.

In five days, leaders were forced to realize three realities: first, the US and Europe no longer seemed to share the values ??that had underpinned the transatlantic alliance since 1945. Second, Europe could no longer rely on the US to protect it.

Third – to the immediate question to which Europe was eagerly awaiting an answer – the US plan, to the extent that it actually exists, did not seem to include a seat at the table for Europe (including on the issue of Ukraine).

Monday's Paris summit was called by French President Emmanuel Macron because, in the words of an Elysee adviser, "it is now necessary for Europeans to do more, better and in a coherent way, for our collective security."

Those who participated were considered the most determined, but also the wealthiest, a coalition not just of the willing but of the capable – including Britain, no longer an EU member but a major contributor to Ukraine and a powerful European military force.

Arriving in Paris, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Europe's security was "at a turning point. Yes, it's about Ukraine, but it's also about us. We need a mindset of urgency. We need an increase in defense. And we need both now."

But Monday's summit is likely to be the first of many on the road to a coherent security policy for Ukraine and for Europe more broadly. Europe's security environment may have changed radically, but it seems that Europe has not.

It has its “enemies” within: populist, far-right, Moscow-friendly, pro-Trump governments that will block a common security policy wherever they can. Hungary’s Foreign Minister, Péter Szijjártó, wasted no time in taking aim at Monday’s summit.

The meeting was a gathering of “pro-war, anti-Trump, frustrated European leaders” aimed at “preventing a peace deal in Ukraine,” he said, adding that unlike them, Budapest “supports Donald Trump’s ambitions … and wants peace in Ukraine.”

Robert Fico, the populist prime minister of Slovakia, also weighed in. EU officials have no mandate to determine Europe's role in any ceasefire in Ukraine, he said, adding that the discussions were not about the EU and their participation undermines trust in the EU.

Countries that were not invited to the Paris talks are also complaining. “Even within the EU, not all countries are treated equally,” said Slovenia’s pro-European president, Nataša Pirc Musar. “This is not the Europe we aspire to [or] the Europe that demands respect.”

Other leaders fear the impact of a large increase in defense spending on already fraught domestic politics. According to NATO, Portugal, Italy, Spain, Belgium, Croatia, Luxembourg and Slovenia all spend less than the 2% of GDP target on defense.

There are strong challenges in the prospect of joint borrowing – which Germany, among others, strongly opposes – to finance Europe's collective security needs and over the use of frozen Russian assets.

Already, there are divisions over post-war Ukraine's security guarantees. Macron floated the idea of ??an eventual European peacekeeping force in Ukraine last year, and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer said on Sunday that the United Kingdom was prepared to deploy troops. Sweden followed suit on Monday.

The Netherlands said it had a "negative no" to the idea, but Germany said it was "premature" and Poland - which spends more than 4% of its GDP on defence, more than any other NATO member - said it was "not planning to send any Polish soldiers".

EU diplomats acknowledge that the Trump administration's brutal, transactional and shameless ideological stance could tear apart Europe's already fragile unity. Whether that happens or not, they say, may depend on the process of which Monday's Paris meeting is just the first step.