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Scientists confirm the start of El Nino: Temperatures and extreme weather set for new records

2026-06-11 23:40:26Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
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El Nino, the natural climate phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean that increases global temperatures, has officially begun, according to American scientists.

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared that El Nino conditions are already present in the tropical Pacific, as sea surface temperatures have increased significantly over recent months.

Many forecasts suggest that this could turn into a so-called "super El Nino", and could even be among the strongest ever recorded.

Adding to decades of global warming caused by human activity, it could bring another year of record temperatures, most likely in 2027, as well as disruptions to the weather, food supply and economy, the effects of which could last throughout that year.

NOAA's announcement is not a surprise, as meteorologists had been expecting this phase of warming following the end of the cooler "sister" phenomenon, La Nina, earlier this year.

Sea surface temperatures in the central and tropical Pacific have already crossed the threshold of 0.5°C above average, which US scientists use to determine the start of an El Nino episode.

"El Nino conditions developed over the past month, as indicated by above-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific," the agency said.

NOAA has also observed that winds over the equatorial Pacific have begun to change direction, a sign that the atmosphere is already responding to the warmer ocean and that we are not just dealing with ocean warming.

What has surprised researchers is the high certainty that computer models show about the strength of this phenomenon.

The intensity of El Nino is measured by how much sea surface temperatures rise above average in a key area of ??the Pacific.

A strong episode is defined when temperatures are more than 1.5°C above average, while a very strong episode is defined when they exceed 2°C above average.

According to NOAA's June forecast, there is a 63% chance that a very strong El Nino will develop during the November-January period, which would rank among the largest events recorded since 1950.

The three most powerful episodes since then have occurred in 1982–1983, 1997–1998, and 2015–2016.

Some of the latest American and European models (ECMWF) go even further, showing that temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise by more than 3°C above average by the end of the year.

However, NOAA urged caution in interpreting these forecasts.

"Even very strong El Nino events do not necessarily produce the same consequences everywhere, but more powerful episodes significantly increase the likelihood of the expected impacts," the agency said.

The biggest concern is the fact that this is happening on a planet that is already much hotter than before.

"We need to worry about the impacts," said Professor Adam Scaife, head of monthly and decadal forecasts at the British Meteorological Service (Met Office).

“The current El Nino is developing above a significant level of global warming. This means that actual temperatures in affected regions could be unprecedented, as the warming caused by El Nino is adding to the effects of climate change.”

A very strong El Nino typically raises global average air temperatures by about 0.2°C, releasing heat stored in the ocean into the atmosphere. This extra heat is adding to a world already breaking temperature records.

The year 2024, the warmest ever recorded, was influenced by an El Nino that was not particularly strong.

And although the La Nina phenomenon brought a cooling effect, 2025 still turned out to be the third warmest year on record, even hotter than 2016, which was accompanied by a super El Nino.

"Later this year and into 2027, we are very likely to see extremely high temperatures globally," said Professor Scaife.

"In 2027 we could have a significant heat addition on top of existing global warming, which could easily lead to another year with temperatures above the 1.5°C limit compared to late 19th century levels."

No two El Nino episodes are identical, but the strongest impacts are usually felt in tropical regions.

Floods are common in northern Peru and southern Ecuador, and can also affect parts of East Africa, Central Asia and the southern United States.

At the same time, the risk of droughts and fires increases in much of Australia, Indonesia and northern South America, damaging agriculture and global food supplies.

El Nino also tends to reduce the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, and forecasters expect a quieter season than usual.

"While this sounds like good news, for Central America it means much less rainfall and a higher risk of drought," said Liz Stephens, professor of climate risk and resilience at the University of Reading.

The United Kingdom also feels the impacts of El Nino, albeit weaker: the phenomenon can increase the likelihood of a mild start and a colder end to winter, but the link is not very strong.

For many people, this prediction is not merely theoretical.

"The El Nino declaration is not just another weather forecast - for millions of people it is a wake-up call that must be taken seriously," said Mohamed Adow, head of the organization Power Shift Africa.

“This means failed rainfall, destroyed crops, rising food prices and families being pushed back to the brink of survival. Especially in East Africa, this will hit communities already devastated by droughts and floods in recent years.”

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shares a similar assessment to NOAA, considering that El Nino conditions are already present and that the phenomenon will almost certainly continue until the fall.

However, not all institutions are ready to officially declare it. The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) uses a stricter criterion, requiring sea surface temperatures to be at least 0.8°C above average.

This week it declared that the tropical Pacific is "approaching El Nino conditions," as temperatures in the central Pacific have crossed its thresholds, but has not yet officially declared the phenomenon's onset.

According to her, El Nino is expected to develop later this year and could be strong.

El Nino usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts about a year.

So far there is no conclusive evidence that climate change is making these events stronger or more frequent, but it is clear that a warmer world could significantly amplify their consequences.


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