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Is it worth investing in buying property, the market may have reached its "peak"!

2025-08-31 08:10:59Aktualitet SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Is it worth investing in buying property, the market may have reached its

The real estate market is expected to be affected by restrictive measures on credit for investment purposes and the trend towards stabilization in the number of foreign tourists.

Real estate remains the main alternative to financial investments, especially in the case of Albania, where a developed capital market is lacking, while access to foreign markets is still limited.

After the pandemic, the real estate market has followed a cycle of rapid price growth.

Demand in this market has been supported by increased tourism, high bank credit supply, and growing interest in purchases by foreign or non-resident entities.

However, accurate assessments of price performance still remain difficult.

The only periodic house price index is the one published every 6 months by the Bank of Albania.

The Fischer Index showed that the average price of homes sold during the second half of 2024 increased by 23.6% compared to the previous half, and by 44.5% compared to a year earlier.

The sales price index in Tirana increased by 26.2% compared to the previous period and 56% compared to the level of a year earlier.

The agents' overall assessment of the overall market situation was somewhat more positive compared to the first 6 months.

In response to the question " How do you assess the market situation compared to the previous (6-month) period? ", the net balance of responses was positive for about 5%, with particularly optimistic responses for the coastal city area, where the balance value was significantly more positive than the long-term average.

The same indicator assessed only for entities that reported sales resulted significantly more positive during the period, with a net balance of around 17%.

The balance of the indicator of the number of new dwellings registered by agents has slightly decreased compared to the previous period. The net balance of those reporting an increase in the number of registered dwellings and those reporting a decrease in their number was -5%.

On the other hand, the number of unsold properties, both residential and commercial, has continued to decline for several consecutive six-month periods.

The average time to sell homes nationwide fell to 9.3 months from 10.5 months in the previous survey.

In the case of Tirana, the average sale time decreased significantly to 7.1 from 9.7 months. The average sale time in coastal areas increased, returning to the values ​​of a year ago, to 10 months, while for other areas, the sale duration was slightly lower than in the previous 6-month period, falling to 11.6 from 12.9 months.

According to the Bank of Albania's survey, expectations for the future appear positive. Agents have positive expectations for the market performance in the territory where they operate for the short-term future and for the longer term (up to two years).

According to the information on the survey methodology, information on price performance and the assessment of the situation by agents in the real estate market is obtained through a field survey of a sample consisting of 230 entities, whose main activity is the trading of real estate.

The selected subjects are real estate agents and construction companies, whose sales represent about 75-80% of the turnover of the entire population.

However, real estate brokers and their representative association, NAREA, have strong reservations about this index. According to them, the Bank of Albania's survey is based on a limited number of entities and transactions.

This index exhibits considerable volatility, often influenced by the areas where transactions are reported. Periods with a high number of transactions in the most expensive areas are generally reflected by strong increases in the house price index.

According to agents, the price performance in the real estate market is far from what the latest change in the Bank of Albania's Fischer Index indicates.

Market players estimate that in Tirana there is a significant slowdown in the growth of property prices, while the market remains more dynamic in coastal areas.

According to them, the market is experiencing sales, especially for new properties, which are being put on the market by builders and where, in general, prices are higher.

Agents say that the better performance of this market can be explained by a greater presence of cash buyers, especially from abroad, by the fact that builders often enable gradual payment in installments, which follows the advancement of the construction project, but also by the lack of bottlenecks related to revaluation and which is especially affecting the resale market.

According to them, these factors are causing transactions to be more oriented, especially towards new construction, and this partly creates the idea of ​​a very high price increase.

They believe that until the revaluation process, the resale market will be in a transition phase, with a lower number of transactions and little price fluctuation.

Furthermore, revaluation may lead to an increase in the supply of properties in the real estate market.

Such a development would in theory further reduce upward pressures on real estate prices, but, according to agents, it is difficult to say whether we should expect a genuine decline in them.

Real estate led Foreign Direct Investments again for 2024

Real estate led foreign investments in the Albanian economy for the third consecutive year.

According to data from the Bank of Albania, last year, foreign investments in real estate in Albania reached the value of 325 million euros, an increase of 17% compared to 2023.

Real estate brought in almost 24% of the total value of Foreign Direct Investment for the past year.

Data shows that foreign investments in real estate are continuing to grow this year. For the first quarter, they reached a value of 104 million euros, 24% more compared to the same period a year ago.

The cycle of rapid growth in real estate prices in Albania in the years following the pandemic is being supported to a significant extent by demand coming from foreign investors.

According to the Bank of Albania, in the second half of 2024, about 18% of housing sold were reported to have been purchased by non-resident citizens.

Of these, about 77% are citizens of EU countries. Overall, the share of transactions in which buyers are non-residents has shown an increasing trend over the last 5 years.

Foreign investments in property are typical especially for coastal areas, where, despite rising prices, they remain quite competitive compared to other coastal countries in the region.

The strong increase in property prices in recent years has made real estate an even more attractive alternative and has increased the number of buyers who have purchased properties for investment purposes.

The Bank of Albania estimates that at the end of 2024, the stock of foreign investments in the real estate market in Albania reached 2.04 billion euros, an increase of 30% compared to the previous year. In the last decade, the stock of foreign investments in real estate has increased almost 27 times.

Based on the methodologies used to measure foreign investments, their flows are valued at the average exchange rate of the period, while the stock is valued at the rate of the last day of the period.

According to the Bank of Albania, the increase in the investment stock has not come only from new flows, but also includes exchange rate changes, price changes and other changes.

This means that the stock of foreign investments is revalued periodically, also reflecting changes in asset prices.

Credit crunch could curb property boom

Financing through bank loans has continued to figure in a good portion of property sales.

According to the Bank of Albania's survey, half of the residential and commercial properties sold in the second half of 2024 were purchased with bank loans. Of these, in 72% of cases, the loan covered up to 60% of the value.

The significant impact of credit on the real estate market is also illustrated by lending statistics.

According to the Bank of Albania, home loans increased for the fifth consecutive year in 2024.

Data shows that new loans for home purchases reached a new historical record of 54.9 billion lek, or about 545 million euros, calculated at last year's average exchange rate.

New housing loans increased by 13% compared to 2023.

The value of the active portfolio or outstanding home loan portfolio at the end of 2024 reached almost 208.7 billion lekë, with an annual growth of 15.5%.

Loan portfolio growth rates have increased significantly compared to the previous year's level of 6.3%.

The banking sector's high willingness to finance property purchases has been a supporting factor in price increases. This has led to property values ​​increasing in recent years and, in general, they have proven to be profitable investments.

But, starting in the second half of this year, things may change, with the entry into force of the Bank of Albania's restrictive measures regarding bank loans for home purchases.

The decision provides for the determination of ceiling levels for the indicators "Loan-to-value ratio" and "Debt service-to-income ratio", for loans granted by banks for residential real estate.

The loan-to-value ratio is the percentage of the purchase price of the home that the bank undertakes to finance through the loan.

The loan-to-value ceiling in Lek will be 85% for the first home and 80% for the second home, while in foreign currency, 75% for the first home and 70% for the second home.

While the debt service to income ratio represents the ratio between the installment or installments of the property loan, in relation to the income of the borrowers.

The debt service to income ratio for loans in Lek will be at the level of 40% for the first home and 35% for the second home.

In foreign currency, the ceiling level will be 35% for the first home and 30% for the second home.

According to the Bank of Albania, the implementation of these limits will enable the reduction of the risk of borrower failure and the reduction of banking losses related to these loans, as a result of unfavorable developments in real estate prices and in the country's macroeconomic framework, such as increased unemployment, falling incomes, increased interest rates, etc.

The Bank of Albania argues that these limits take into account and are adjusted to address risk proportionally, depending on the type of property and the currency in which the loan is granted.

At the same time, the decision provides a recommendation regarding the maximum maturity of residential real estate loans, which may serve banks to improve the risk profile of a given exposure.

The imposition of austerity measures for home loans also came as a result of recommendations from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Në fakt, Banka e Shqipërisë kishte shprehur që vitin e kaluar shqetësimin e saj për rritjen e shpejtë të kredisë për shtëpi. Fillimisht, ky shqetësim u tentua të adresohej nëpërmjet vendosjes së një shtese të posaçme në raportin e mjaftueshmërisë së kapitalit të sektorit bankar.

Shtesa kundërciklike e kapitalit u vendos për herë të parë në qershor, në nivelin 0.25% (për t’u zbatuar nga 30 qershori 2025) dhe u rrit në dhjetor në nivelin 0.5% (për t’u zbatuar nga 31 dhjetori 2025).

Megjithatë, edhe për shkak të niveleve të larta faktike të kapitalizimit të sektorit bankar, një masë e tillë deri tani nuk ka dhënë ndikime të rëndësishme në ngadalësimin e kreditimit.

Për këtë arsye, Banka e Shqipërisë ka vendosur të ndjekë rekomandimin e FMN-së dhe të vendosë kufizime direkte në standardet e administrimit të rrezikut, të lidhura me kredinë për shtëpi.

Efektet reale të vendimmarrjes së Bankës së Shqipërisë do të jenë më të qarta gjatë muajve në vazhdim, por megjithatë pritshmëritë e para të aktorëve të tregut janë që këto masa do të ndikojnë kryesisht blerjet e shtëpive të dyta dhe në përgjithësi, të atyre për qëllime investimi.

Megjithatë, duhet thënë se ky segment vlerësohet të ketë pasur një peshë në rritje në transaksionet e tregut në vitet e fundit.

Në veçanti, rritja e turizmit ka nxitur blerjet e shtëpive për qiradhënie ditore në Tiranë dhe në bregdet.

Edhe agjentët e pasurive të paluajtshme nuk mendojnë se rregullat e reja të vendosura nga Banka e Shqipërisë do të kenë ndikim shumë të rëndësishëm në kufizimin e kreditimit për blerjen e pasurive të paluajtshme dhe në ecurinë e tregut të pronave në përgjithësi.

Sekretari i Shoqatës Shqiptare të Pasurive të Paluajtshme (NAREA), Reinaldo Pipiria, u shpreh për “Monitor” se, mbështetur në përvojën e deritanishme të sektorit dhe në kontaktet me sektorin bankar, kreditë për blerjen e pasurive të paluajtshme jepen me kushte që qëndrojnë brenda limiteve të vendosura nga Banka e Shqipërisë.

Megjithatë, z. Pipiria mendon se efektet mund të vijnë kryesisht nga perceptimi që krijojnë aktorët e tregut dhe veçanërisht shitësit pas miratimit të masave të reja.

Sipas tij, sinjalet se Banka e Shqipërisë po tenton të shtrëngojë kreditimin mund të sjellin më shumë hezitime të shitësve ndaj atyre blerësve potencialë që duan ta financojnë blerjen me kredi.

Ai shprehet se shitjet me kredi, sidomos në vitin 2024 e në vazhdim, janë dëmtuar disi edhe nga shtyrja e procesit të rivlerësimit.

Në këtë fazë, duket se agjentët e tregut të pronave i druhen më shumë një efekti psikologjik, se sa një ndikimi të drejtpërdrejtë të masave të Bankës së Shqipërisë në tregun e pasurive të paluajtshme.

Oferta e pronave ngelet e lartë

Ndërkohë që masat e Bankës së Shqipërisë dhe “ngopja” e turizmit mund ta frenojnë kërkesën, oferta në tregun e pasurive të paluajtshme duket se vazhdon të rritet.

Sipas të dhënave të INSTAT, vitin e kaluar në Shqipëri u dhanë 1336 leje ndërtimi, në rënie me 16.6% krahasuar me një vit më parë.

It is worth noting that permits for apartment buildings (buildings with a height of over three floors) were at similar levels to the previous year. Last year, 219 such permits were issued, up from 218 the year before.

The number of permits in this category has been at roughly stable levels in the last four years, reflecting the high appetite to build mansions and towers in the post-pandemic period.

This trend is also confirmed by the increase in the area of ​​building permits. In 2024, the total area of ​​building permits for new buildings reached approximately 2.5 million m², an increase of 18.1% compared to the previous year. These data indicate that the new supply of real estate on the market, mainly residential, will continue to be stable./ Monitor


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