"Chaos or collaboration? Western Balkans" dilemma, analysis: Aspirations for partnership and progress often face division

On the one hand, cooperation and optimism. On the other hand, warnings of instability.

This dualism has long characterized the Western Balkans – the region where aspirations for partnership and progress are often met with historical divisions and mistrust.

Representatives of its six countries – Kosovo, Albania, Serbia, North Macedonia, Montenegro and Bosnia and Herzegovina – sat down on October 14 at a table in Berlin and signed an Action Plan for the Regional Common Market, as well as the Access to Higher Education Agreement in each other's countries.

The host of the meeting, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, trumpeted this as major progress.

"This will make working across borders less complicated and will bring you significantly closer to EU standards," he said.

Two days later, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte sent another message from Brussels:

"The situation in the Western Balkans remains worrying because of the secessionist threats in Bosnia and Herzegovina, as well as because of the fragile security situation in Kosovo and the small progress in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina."

The international community has been trying for years to increase cooperation between the Western Balkan countries, which went through bloody wars in the 1990s, and to align them with the European Union. To this end, he initiated the Berlin Process in 2014, which includes all six western Balkan countries. Each year, their representatives gather at summits, along with those from partner countries, and make agreements and declarations.

So far, they have produced over 40 declarations and agreements in various fields – from trade to free movement of people – but a large proportion of them have fallen out of the way.

Marika Djolai, a member of the Balkans Advisory Group in Europe and co-author of a study on the 10-year progress of the Berlin Process, explains to Radio Free Europe's Expose program why there is a staleness to fulfill the commitments that are taken over:

"There are some agreements that are less relevant at a given geopolitical moment, but sometimes there is also a lack of commitment by western Balkan governments to implement them. So sometimes it's about political issues, sometimes it's about economic or finance issues, and sometimes, simply, the initiative is too complex to be carried out quickly."

For Silavana Mojsovska, from the Institute of Economics at the University of St. Cyril and Methodius in Skopje, the implementation of agreements requires adjusting national policies, which often does not, because governments replace each other and pursue other priorities. Pressure, she says, is also inevitable.

"For example, during the COVID-19 pandemic, green corridors were created in the Western Balkans to make it faster and easier to circulate essential goods between countries in the region," she recalls.

“Ky ka qenë një model i mirë sesi vendet i kanë zbatuar masat që u janë dashur – edhe pse kjo ka ndodhur për shkak të krizës nga COVID-19. Ndaj, nëse nuk ka presion – qoftë pozitiv, qoftë negativ – disa marrëveshje kanë tendencë të mos zbatohen”, thotë Mojsovska.

Both observers say the Berlin Process is moving forward and that this is a good thing. In the words of Marika Djolai, representatives of Kosovo and Serbia, despite tense relations, "sit at a table for ten years and negotiate practical projects that give hope."10

But unlike them, Besar Gergi, from the Group for Legal and Political Studies in Prishtina, offers a more critical view of the state of the Berlin Process. According to him, he is in the status quo – the German government tries to foster reconciliation with new ideas and policies, but there is little readiness and enthusiasm among the region's countries.

"The view pushed by Berlin is that if these countries trade among themselves – that is, they have greater trade – they will have economic development and political problems will be overcome. "This is a kind of opinion berlin has used with Russia before, saying that if the EU and Ukraine trade more with it by buying its oil and gas, then Russia will, in a way, enter the orbit of the West and there will be no incentive to create problems." He says gergi.

"With the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we have seen that this does not stand. Regardless of economic relations, it is political relations that have superiority to all others," he stresses.

As the most problematic issue in the region, Gergi sees the dispute between Kosovo and Serbia. He says Serbia is willing to sign agreements, but not to implement them.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina, it also recalls that there are problems in relation to Kosovo, due to disagreements in decision-making between sarajevo and Banja luka. Gergi says the way out is only to resolve open political issues – without this solution there can be no progress in the Berlin Process or any other regional mechanism, he says.

"To take an example from the international arena — China and the U.S. have had problems for decades, while America has accepted the one China policy, officially recognizing Beijing as its capital and the communist government as the only government in China," Gergi said.

In an effort to normalize relations, Kosovo and Serbia have been holding negotiations since 2011, with the mediation of the European Union.

In this process, they have reached dozens of agreements, but many of them remain unsealed, and the parties accuse each other of being unable to do so.

In an interview with RFE/RL in late August, the European mediator of the talks, Miroslav Lajcak, said that societies in Kosovo and Serbia are not ready for normalization.

Whenever leaders make agreements, they are criticized for making concessions, but "people need to understand that normalisation requires compromise."

Gergi says that the West often pursues "policies of appeasement" with Serbia, which the Kosovo government mentions time and time again. According to the analyst, the West should understand "real risk" more clearly.

"It is often said that in politics one should not look at words but deeds. Governments are usually viewed at their own expense. In the last few years, in 2020, Serbia's military expenditures were 786 million euros, while this year the approved budget was 1.35 billion euros. So we have nearly doubled in four years – and this in a post-pandemic period, when most governments have focused on the economy, the Serbian government has focused on rearmament," gergi says.

The West has assured the Western Balkan countries that their future lies in the EU, provided they resolve open issues. To give them a boost in this direction, the EU constantly allocates financial means for them. Currently, Kosovo alone is not an official candidate for membership in the bloc.

On the 10th anniversary of the Berlin Process, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said that we should look to a future where "all six Western Balkan partners are part of our Union".

Supporting this vision, Jellena Djanki?, from the European University Institute in Florence, emphasizes the need for a change in mindset and course. Speaking to Expose, she highlights the current view of the citizens of the region:

"What I've noticed, especially in the last two or three years, is that they're tired of crises, of constant political problems, of historical issues that are revived only in support of political narratives. Both from talking to ordinary citizens and some political representatives, I have seen a kind of fatigue from the constant invention of crises. It's time to look ahead."

To look forward, there must be a genuine collective commitment. After all, who wouldn't want to get out of the endless cycle of crises? But in this region with complex history, progress requires first and foremost real recognition of reality, while NATO's warnings can serve as a call to action.