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Scientists warn: Extreme weather will intensify rapidly over the next 20 years

2024-09-16 09:18:37Lifestyle SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

Scientists warn: Extreme weather will intensify rapidly over the next 20 years

Extreme weather will intensify rapidly over the next 20 years, a new study has warned. Scientists from the CICERO Center for International Climate Research in Norway say that nearly 70% of the world's population will see dramatic changes in weather conditions if greenhouse gas emissions are not rapidly reduced.

The new study, published in the journal Nature Geoscience, shows how global warming can combine with normal weather changes to produce ten-year periods of rapid changes in precipitation and temperatures.

Natural events such as El Niño can change weather conditions leading to maximum rainfall and temperature. As the world gets warmer and wetter, however, extreme events begin to move beyond what society and ecosystems can withstand.

Very few studies have so far explored the impact that extreme weather will have on different countries. The researchers used four different climate simulations to find out how much precipitation and temperature peaks could change over the next two decades.

Under a scenario where little is done to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, regions such as the Mediterranean, Northwest and South America, and East Asia could expect "sustained and unprecedented rates of change for two or more decades."

Many of the regions predicted to see the fastest changes include low-income countries that are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of extreme weather.

Current climate simulations show that about 70 percent of the world's population—5.6 billion people—should expect changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall in a future high-emissions scenario.

Some changes have already been sealed with the study revealing how quickly weather conditions will change in the next 20 years even with reduced emissions.

Even with strong mitigation efforts in line with the goals of the Paris Agreement, 20 percent of the global population or about 1.5 billion people will still be affected. The most dramatic changes in this scenario will be confined to the Arabian Peninsula and South Asia.

This has important implications for climate adaptation efforts around the world. Researchers warn of the potentially deadly consequences of these climate change impacts, from deaths from heat waves to floods.


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