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How effective are sanctions?

2022-08-12 17:45:06Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA ASTRID PRANGE DE OLIVEIRA
How effective are sanctions?
Closed shops in Russia

They are politically popular but scientifically controversial: Sanctions. They have been introduced to countries like Russia, Cuba, China... But how efficient are they?

Arms embargoes, travel bans, trade blockades... Sanctions are increasingly being used. Recent examples are China's sanctions against Taiwan and Western countries' sanctions against Russia after military intervention in Ukraine.

While the United Nations (UN) has imposed sanctions on 14 countries, there are 35 countries on the European Union sanctions list. Meanwhile, the US has even 38 countries and organizations on its sanctions list.

But do they work and how efficient are these sanctions? Do they really go beyond symbolism? In its latest report, the "German Institute for Global and Regional Studies" (Giga) draws a mixed balance.

"Less than half of the sanctions end with full concessions from the sanctioned," he says. "This makes it clear that sanctions are an ambivalent instrument of peace policy and, like military interventions, must be included in an overall political, diplomatic and economic strategy."

According to Giga, there are also cases of "clear successes". These include the end of Libya's nuclear weapons program (sanctions 1978-2006), anti-corruption measures in Bulgaria (2007-09) and UN sanctions for the civil war in Ivory Coast (2003-16). Even the sanctions against apartheid in South Africa in the 1990s are considered a success. DW has selected six countries from the long list of sanctioned countries for analysis.

Turkey

Since October 14, 2019, the EU has imposed sanctions on Ankara. The reason is the drilling and exploration of gas in the eastern Mediterranean off the coast of Cyprus. The measures include travel bans or asset freezes on individuals and companies involved in gas production.

In addition, the US has imposed sanctions on the NATO partner since December 2020. The reason was the purchase of military equipment from the Russian state arms exporter Rosoboronexport. Ankara has violated US rules that prohibit business with US-sanctioned countries, such as Russia. Sanctions have worsened the economic crisis in Turkey, but have not yet led to the surrender of President Erdogan.

Venezuela

Many countries have imposed punitive measures against the Venezuelan government and President Nicolas Maduro, most notably the US, Canada, Mexico, Panama and Switzerland.

The US has imposed broad sanctions against the government in Caracas since 2015, and against state oil company PDVSA since 2019. But after the current energy crisis erupted, some sanctions have been eased. Since November 2017, the EU has also imposed restrictive measures in response to human rights and democracy violations in the country. The sanctions have isolated Venezuela politically and made the country more dependent on China and Russia. The desired regime change has not happened.

Cuba

The trade embargo imposed on Cuba by US President John F. Kennedy on February 3, 1962 is the longest-running embargo in history. The embargo was aimed at overthrowing leader Fidel Castro and the communist regime.

Every year since 1992, Cuba has submitted a motion to the UN General Assembly to condemn and repeal the US trade embargo. A large majority of countries are now in favor of ending the measures, especially countries in Latin America. The EU lifted sanctions against Cuba in 2008.

After former US President Trump withdrew the reliefs made by his predecessor Barack Obama, Joe Biden now wants to soften the US sanctions regime against Cuba again. Sanctions have strengthened the regime in Havana because Castro and his regime could blame the US for all crises in Cuba.

mountain

The West African country of Mali has been placed under numerous sanctions – by the UN Security Council (resolution of September 5, 2017), by the West African economic community Ecowas, by the EU and the US.

Due to "repeated violations of the ceasefire agreement, the 2015 peace treaty, terrorist activities and attacks against the UN peacekeeping mission MINUSMA", the US imposed additional sanctions on this country on July 26, 2019.

The Ecowas economic community, which also imposed sanctions on Mali after the military coup in August 2020, lifted these sanctions on July 7 this year. The reason was that with the announcement of the parliamentary elections for November 2023 and the presidential elections in 2024, the grounds for the lifting of sanctions had been met.

libya

The list of sanctions against Libya is also long. The UN Security Council first imposed a series of restrictions in 1993 after a bomb attack on an American passenger plane over Lockerbie, Scotland. These were lifted in 2003 after then head of state Muammar al-Gaddafi pleaded guilty and 270 victims' families were compensated.

During the civil war in 2011, the UN Security Council approved a package of sanctions including a no-fly zone. The oil export ban, which was supposed to be lifted on July 30, 2022, was extended until October 30, 2023. On September 21, 2020, the EU imposed additional sanctions for human rights violations and violations of the arms embargo. The measures were partially successful, especially the no-fly zone is considered successful.

Iran

How effective are sanctions?
No other country has faced such a complex sanctions regime as Iran

No other country has faced such a complex sanctions regime as Iran. In addition to the Iranian nuclear program, the reasons for this are human rights violations and support for terrorism. UN sanctions against Iran were lifted in two steps. On January 16, 2016, after the end of the nuclear program, and in October 2020 when the UN arms embargo was lifted. This is considered as proof of the effectiveness of the sanctions.

The EU aligned itself with the UN, but maintained some sanctions against Iran, for human rights abuses and terrorism. Even the US is sticking to a complex sanctions regime, despite the easing that has been done in the meantime. The sanctions have had massive economic consequences in Iran. After a visit to Iran in May of this year, the UN envoy, Alena Douhan, expressed "very concern" about the humanitarian problems in this country./ DW


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