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Secret CIA report: After Khamenei, power could pass to the Revolutionary Guard

2026-02-28 23:05:01Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Secret CIA report: After Khamenei, power could pass to the Revolutionary Guard
Ali Khamenei

In the weeks leading up to the joint US-Israeli attacks on Iran, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) assessed that even if Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, were killed during the operation, he would likely be replaced by hardline figures within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).

According to two sources briefed on the intelligence assessments who spoke to the Reuters news agency, the reports were drafted over the past two weeks and analyzed possible scenarios following a US military intervention, including the real possibility of regime change in the Islamic Republic - an objective that Washington has increasingly articulated.

The sources emphasized that the CIA reports did not reach a definitive conclusion on any scenario, but highlighted that eliminating Khamenei would not automatically guarantee political transformation or a transition to a more moderate system.

The IRGC, an elite military force with a key role in protecting the Shiite theocratic order in Iran, is considered the most organized and powerful structure within the state, with profound influence on the economy, security, and foreign policy.

The intelligence assessment suggests that elements of it would be more institutionally prepared to take control in the event of a power vacuum.

The CIA declined to comment on the reports.

Discussions in Washington

President Donald Trump has signaled for weeks an interest in regime change in Tehran, although without publicly detailing the American vision for Iran's future leadership.

In a video address on Saturday morning, Trump called the Iranian government a "terrorist regime" and encouraged the Iranian people to "take control of their government," suggesting that military strikes would create the conditions for a domestic uprising.

According to sources familiar with the process, Secretary of State Marco Rubio informed the group of lawmakers known as the "Gang of Eight" last week that the military operation was likely to go ahead, although the president could change his mind if nuclear negotiations with Tehran yielded results.

The talks in Geneva, however, produced no agreement.

The broader context

The American and Israeli attack came after weeks of internal debate in the US government over intervention, against the backdrop of deadly protests that erupted in Iran in December and failed efforts to revive a nuclear deal.

The CIA assessment underscores a complex reality: even a successful military operation that would eliminate the regime's top figure would not necessarily ensure a democratic transition.

On the contrary, there is a risk that power will be consolidated by even more hardline factions within the security apparatus.

While developments on the ground remain unclear, intelligence analysis suggests that regime change in Iran – if it occurs – could be much more complicated than simply eliminating a leader.


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