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A new war on the horizon, Erdogan ready to intervene militarily in this state

2022-06-08 19:12:26Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
A new war on the horizon, Erdogan ready to intervene militarily in this state
Erdogan

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has announced that he intends to launch a military operation against US-backed Kurdish fighters in Syria, whom Ankara considers terrorists.

Analysts say Turkey believes it is in a strong position given that Washington is urging Turkey to lift obstacles to Sweden and Finland's NATO membership. Turkey is stepping up its military presence on the border with Syria in preparation for an operation against YPG Kurdish forces.

Ankara considers the YPG group a terrorist organization linked to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers' Party) insurgents fighting Turkey.

So far, Turkey has been restrained, due to the cooperation of US forces with the YPG group against the Islamic State. Washington has warned Ankara not to take any action. But Turkey seems to see an opportunity as the United States needs Ankara's support for Sweden and Finland's NATO membership.

"Turkey believes it is in a strong diplomatic position, at a time when it is being asked to give the green light to NATO enlargement. "Consequently, possible criticism from the West will be more limited," said Sinan Ulgen, an analyst at the Center for Economic Studies and Foreign Policy, a research institute in Istanbul.

Turkey intends, through military operation, to expand its control over Syrian territory on the border. In an effort to minimize tensions with Washington, Turkey has limited the scope of operations to avoid areas where US forces are present. The operation will focus on areas controlled by the Damascus regime and Russia, where the YPG group operates.

Analysts warn that there are major risks. Soli Ozel with Kadir Has University in Istanbul tells VOA that Russia could be an obstacle to Ankara's goals.

"Obviously Damascus will not accept, but it does not have the power to oppose. But if the Russians do not allow Turkey to use its airspace, then it will be too costly for Ankara and the operation may not succeed. "Besides, Iran is against any Turkish intervention and the Russians have different positions."

While Erdogan opposes sanctions against Russia over aggression in Ukraine, Ankara maintains an advantage over Moscow. But Russia has also changed its stance, already voicing concerns about Turkey's intentions in Syria.

During talks Wednesday in Ankara, Russian chief diplomat Sergei Lavrov is expected to gain something in exchange for a green light for the Turkish operation in Syria. Analysts say this will add to US concerns.


"Any operation threatens instability, but a compromise between Turkey and Russia is likely to be reached. "We are at a time when Washington is seeking the isolation of Russia and does not want to see it as part of a Syrian operation," said Aaron Stein of the Philadelphia-based Foreign Policy Research Institute.

While polls show declining support for President Erdogan ahead of next June's elections, analysts say any operation in Syria is likely to increase his voter support.


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