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The four men who could save or destroy Iran

2026-03-03 19:32:21Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The four men who could save or destroy Iran
Bombings in Iran

Following the assassination of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Saturday's airstrikes, attention has focused on the potential successor who will lead the Islamic Republic at a crucial moment: calming the situation, or all-out confrontation with the US and Israel.

According to analysis published by The Telegraph, four main figures are seen as contenders to take over the country.

Alireza Arafi

Possible strategy: Ceasefire

The four men who could save or destroy Iran

The 67-year-old cleric is seen as a path to de-escalation. He controls the network of religious seminaries in Iran, which gives him clerical legitimacy.

He temporarily took over until a new leader is elected, according to the Constitution.

If elected, it is expected to signal a return to diplomacy and negotiations to avoid escalating the war.

However, analysts suggest that real power could remain in the hands of the Larijani family, while Arafi would play the role of symbolic figure.

Mohammad Mehdi Mirbagheri

Possible strategy: Total escalation

The four men who could save or destroy Iran

Considered a representative of the most radical ideological wing, Mirbagheri supports a maximalist vision of "velayat-e faqih" (rule of the Islamic jurist).

His election would signal a rejection of any agreement and a continuation of open confrontation, including continued attacks on American and Israeli targets.

Such a scenario would increase the risk of a devastating clash for Iran.

Sadeq Larijani

Possible strategy: Pragmatic survival

The four men who could save or destroy Iran

The former head of the judiciary and currently head of the Appropriations Council, Larijani is seen as a compromise figure between the factions.

He has strong conservative credentials, but also a reputation as a pragmatist.

In this scenario, Iran would maintain its nuclear program and its stance towards the West, but without engaging in self-destructive escalation.

Analysts consider this the most realistic scenario for the regime's survival.

Mojtaba Khamenei

Possible strategy: Military support from the Revolutionary Guard

The four men who could save or destroy Iran

The late leader's second son has operated for years in the shadows as an influential figure in power networks.

If the clergy fails to agree on a successor, there is a possibility that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) could impose him through a kind of military coup – provided he is still alive, as it is not officially known whether he was, or was not, part of the Israeli attacks.

This scenario would transform Iran into an open military dictatorship, with increasing internal repression and the risk of further destabilization.

The risk of fragmentation

In the event of a power vacuum, there is also the possibility of internal tensions and separatist movements in areas such as Iranian Kurdistan or Khuzestan, which could lead to territorial disintegration and internal conflict.

The choice the clerics make in the coming days or weeks will determine whether Iran will seek a deal to avoid destruction, or pursue a path of direct confrontation with unpredictable consequences for the region and beyond.

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