
In 15 months, Hamas and Hezbollah have taken heavy blows. Israel fears insecurity in Syria and the influence of Qatar and Turkey. Meanwhile, the Jewish state sees an opportunity to strike at Iran's nuclear program.
Guido Olimpio – Corriere della Sera
For now, we have a declared ceasefire, fragile and shifting like the sands of the desert. Israel's enemies have not laid down their weapons, while in Tel Aviv, the government's "hawks" demand the continuation of the war.
Thus, five fronts remain open on the map.
Gaza
Hamas has taken heavy blows, lost key leaders, lost thousands of people, and is now led by an unyielding figure like Mohammed Sinwar, who has shared many decisions with his brother Yahya.
However, the movement has not disappeared. It has resumed recruiting, and it does not matter if some of the recruits are inexperienced. There are still thousands of fighters – enough numbers to keep the challenge alive.
Despite tons of bombs, the Gaza Strip still remains in their hands. They have made reserves and are organized.
Only time will tell whether their role – imposed even with brute force – has lost its impact. According to an analysis by the Jerusalem Post, Hamas wants to be underestimated in order to surprise its opponents at the next barricade.
Iran
The most distant enemy represents the most “close” issue. That, at least, is according to Prime Minister Netanyahu, who has targeted Iran.
Tel Aviv is convinced that there is an opportunity to thwart the Iranian nuclear program through the military option, a time window that has been expanded by the weakening of the Shiite militias and the internal problems of the ayatollahs (rivalries, tensions, the economy).
Netanyahu is hoping for Donald Trump's support, but it is not certain whether the next US president, even if he is against Tehran, will approve military action. Much will depend on contacts, current situations and the actions of the Islamic Republic.
The Pasdaran are preparing a show of force: drills, bunkers filled with missiles, and threatening rhetoric.
Meanwhile, President Masoud Pezeshkian is playing the diplomacy card. A two-pronged approach to maintain the role of leader of the “resistance” and avoid isolation. The risks of confrontation with the Jewish state remain. Long-range systems are “on standby,” although they may prefer to confront in secret through covert operations.
Saudi Arabia and the Emirates are monitoring developments: a troubled Iran suits their interests, but they do not want more tensions in the Persian Gulf, as these could have unpredictable consequences.
Lebanon
The ceasefire with Hezbollah has been broken by clashes from time to time, but it still holds. The pro-Iranian movement is trying to recover from the blows it suffered over the summer with the assassination of its leaders and a large number of veterans.
Assad's fall has also damaged a vital logistical corridor for supplies. Observers believe the group is focused on rebuilding in a much more complicated context than before, with a Lebanese political landscape where Westerners and Sunni monarchies are trying to reduce the influence of the "Party of God."
History, however, has shown that Lebanon is an arena of repeated conflict, with numerous weapons and external interference.
SYRIA
It is the most unpredictable region, with jihadist rebels in Damascus and part of the territory occupied by Israel after the overthrow of the dictator.
Two days ago, the IDF launched its first attack on representatives of the new government – ??a clear signal that Tel Aviv does not aim for complete calm. In Israeli strategy, it was more advantageous for Bashar Assad to remain in power – even humiliated by constant attacks – than to have the rebels nearby.
The fear in Tel Aviv is the growing influence of Qatar and Turkey, two major supporters of the rebels, who in various ways have ties to Hamas. This has led to possible scenarios of cooperation between Israel and the Kurds to counter Turkey and Iran.
Yemen
The Houthis have entered the conflict in support of the Palestinians, affecting commercial traffic in the Red Sea. Launching missiles and drones towards Israel, attacking merchant ships. Actions to support the Iranian military supplier and gain a greater role in the region.
Israel has responded with airstrikes 2,000 kilometers away: Retaliatory actions and indirect training for possible attacks against Iran.
Currently, Yemeni militants are willing to stop attacks – according to the latest information – but are ready to resume them if the ceasefire is violated.
They are fearless, have little to lose, and are always ready for battle.