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The extreme right towards an absolute majority, what is happening with the elections in France and what is expected from the second round

2024-07-01 15:48:18Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The extreme right towards an absolute majority, what is happening with the
Marine Le Pen

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN) has scored another victory and is now well on its way to its goal of turning French politics in its favor.

In the coming days, there will be a lot of talk about the left and center candidates, who will be more active in the second round in order to concentrate the vote against the RN and the disappearance of the old Republican Front.

But it would take a reversal of monumental proportions to reverse the only conclusion to be drawn from this first round of voting, which is that the RN is now unquestionably the dominant political force in France.

However, what remains to be decided over the next week is still quite important.

It's the difference between a far-right government that has a free hand because of an absolute majority in the National Assembly and a far-right government that can't do much at all because the Assembly is divided.

Right now, forecasts give the RN between 260 and 310 seats. With 289 seats being an absolute majority, there is obviously still a lot to play for.

To limit the damage to their cause, French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist and left-wing New Popular Front alliance will call on their supporters to vote tactically in the second round on July 7. Even if their candidate is eliminated, voters will be asked to choose whoever in their constituency is against the RN.

But the problem with this kind of party order is that fewer and fewer people listen to them anymore.

Removing the shame that attended an RN vote has been a long process, but it can now safely be declared complete.

The other difficulty for the RN's opponents is the high number of so-called triangular votes in the second round – in other words, areas where not two but three candidates will face off next Sunday. Usually one of the center, far right and left.

The reason for the high number of triangles is the high voter turnout, which itself is the result of high stakes.

Also because the lightning campaign made it impossible for the small parties to unite, so the vote is concentrated in the three blocs.

Apparently, if there are three parties competing in a constituency, it is more difficult for the anti-RN vote to coalesce. In many places there will be centre-left or left-wing candidates standing aside – but not in all.

Overall, the country seems to be gripped now by a sense of the inevitability of a far-right victory.

What was once seen as a big thing to not even think about is now a palpable fact in waiting./From the BBC

 


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