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ANALYSIS: How Mohammed bin Salman's bet on Iran failed

2026-03-17 23:47:32Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
ANALYSIS: How Mohammed bin Salman's bet on Iran failed
Mohammed bin Salma

From the Financial Times

In the space of a few years, Saudi Arabia's crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, has gone from warning against "appeasing" Iran's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, whom he called "the new Hitler of the Middle East," to embarking on a historic rapprochement with Tehran.

In one of the most significant moves of his foreign policy, Mohammed bin Salman aimed to reduce long-standing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, believing that dialogue would bring the stability needed to realize his economic vision.

But recent developments seem to have called this strategy into question. Since the attacks launched two weeks ago by the United States and Israel on Iran, the Iranian regime has repeatedly struck Saudi Arabia and neighboring Gulf countries, targeting American bases, the American embassy in Riyadh, the Ras Tanura refinery, and the large Shaybah oil field.

"It's the last thing he wanted. He wants stability and order, not missiles and drones in the air," said Bernard Haykel of Princeton University.

The prolonged conflict seriously jeopardizes the prince's efforts to attract foreign investment and turn the country into a regional hub for trade, tourism and finance. As a result, Formula 1 has canceled races scheduled for April in Saudi Arabia and Bahrain.

So far, Saudi Arabia has been less affected than some other Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Qatar, which have faced more missile and drone attacks. Access to the Red Sea also allows it to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic corridor that has been affected by Iranian attacks.

Meanwhile, the chief executive of state energy company Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, warned of "catastrophic consequences" for the global economy if the conflict continues, calling it the biggest crisis for the oil and gas industry in the region.

According to Firas Maksad of Eurasia Group, this situation constitutes a blow to the “Vision 2030” plan, which aims to transform the Saudi economy and attract foreign investment. He points out that the country may be forced to increase defense spending, slowing down economic reforms.

Analysts say there are few positive scenarios for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states. Publicly, Riyadh has condemned Iran and called for a reduction in tensions, but at the same time there are fears that an abrupt cessation of the offensive by US President Donald Trump could leave behind a weakened but more aggressive Iran.

Saudi sources say Riyadh is not seeking regime change in Iran, but sees its weakening in its own interest. Meanwhile, concerns remain that the conflict could escalate further, including the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels.

Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries have traditionally been wary of Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution, but in 2023 they restored diplomatic relations through a deal brokered by China.

However, despite efforts to avoid involvement in the conflict, the recent attacks show that stability in the region remains fragile, while Saudi Arabia faces one of the greatest challenges in recent years.


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