Analysis: Will overwhelmed Ukrainian troops be defeated by North Korean soldiers?

Outnumbered and outgunned and overwhelmed, Ukrainian troops are on the brink of collapse in the face of a Russian army poised to bring more soldiers and weaponry to the battlefield to breach Kiev's defenses.

Add to this the North Korean troops: more than 11,000 soldiers have been sent to Russia, which poses a very high risk to the front lines of Ukraine, as the chances are that the Russian army will penetrate a location, or cause a mountain of casualties.

After estimates that Russia's losses in the war have exceeded 600,000, and the Kremlin's insistence on avoiding another unwelcome call-up to the military, bringing in North Korean troops may be just what Moscow needs, among other things , to put an end to the humiliation it suffered when Ukraine gained Russian territory in the Kursk region.

Ukrainian Government official Andriy Kovalenko said that Ukrainian forces have already clashed with North Korean units in the Kursk region. However, he did not give details about when those fights take place.

"Adding [North Korean troops] to this chaotic mix in areas like Kursi will add pressure to [Ukraine's] operations," said Dara Massicot, an expert on the Russian military at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

South Korea's intelligence agency and later US authorities said 3,000 North Korean troops had arrived at Russian training bases in early October, and as many as 12,000 soldiers – roughly four brigades – could eventually be sent to the conflict in Ukraine.

A senior Ukrainian diplomat said their move is being led by three generals and about 500 officers.

However, there are still doubts about the North Koreans' combat capabilities and what impact their presence will have on the battlefield.

North Korea's military "is poorly equipped, lacks training resources, is malnourished, and is often used for manual labor on construction projects and to harvest fall crops," said Terence Roehrig, an expert at the War College. US Navy in Rhode Island.

"Most North Koreans probably don't speak Russian and still don't have real battlefield experience," said Benjamin Young, who does North Korea research at the Rand Corporation.

"They are also operating within a Russian military system that is highly corrupt and undisciplined. The North Koreans will not adapt to the lack of discipline and order among the Russian recruits," he added.

Kneeling, but [still] invincible

On the front lines, Ukrainian lines are retreating in the face of Russian offensives. After shocking Moscow by invading and seizing parts of the Kursk region, Ukrainian units are now retreating, and have lost nearly half of the total territory they initially captured.

Further southeast, the city of Kupiansk, in Ukraine's Kharkiv region, faces serious threats, as Russian forces have breached Ukrainian defenses at the Oskil River. Russian forces are also advancing on the center of the plateau town of Chasiv Yar after crossing the Siverski Donets-Donbass Canal in August.

Deeper south, Russian troops are on their way to Pokrovsk, a major logistics hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas, after taking control of the town of Vuhledar last month, and are inching towards a major highway.

Ukraine's recent difficulties stem from the slow supply of crucial Western weapons, such as the Abrama M-1 tanks and ATACMS precision-guided munitions. Equally decisive has been Kiev's inability to increase efforts to train and recruit new soldiers, to refresh the crushed units on the front lines.

On the other hand, Russia – despite the heavy losses – has managed to supply the front lines with volunteers lured by very high salaries and benefits.

South Korean intelligence reports that Russia will pay about $2,000 per month per soldier, although most of the salary will likely go to the North Korean government.

"This is a major commitment from North Korea and a serious escalation in the war," Roehring said, adding that "however, these soldiers will not be decisive on the battlefield."

"Considering the rate of daily casualties, the Russian army will exhaust the North Korean troops within 1-2 weeks", he believes.

Of greater concern to Ukraine, however, is South Korean intelligence's assertion that among the troops are soldiers from North Korea's XI Corps special forces, known as the Storm Corps.

"These elite units are believed to be well trained and better equipped, which would make them a more formidable force than many other elements of the North Korean military," Roehrig said.

Ukraine's military intelligence agency said the North Korean troops were called "special Buryats" - a reference to an ethnic minority from the Asian part of Russia - and were equipped with mortars, sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles, night vision binoculars and other equipment.

Intelligence reports indicated that North Korean troops are physically capable but need to be trained in the latest tactics, South Korean lawmaker Park Sun-won said on October 23.

"Russian instructors believe that North Korean soldiers are physically and mentally capable but lack understanding of modern warfare, such as drone strikes," Park said, according to Yonhap news agency.

Some observers said the North Koreans may not be ordered to take part in combat but to act in support roles.

"Russian logistics is very bad, so additional personnel can help. Support roles in combat, such as drone operations, are possible. North Korean special forces can train Russian special forces and their surrogates," said Mark Cancian and Chris Park, experts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

In either role, the use of North Koreans would free Russian personnel from front-line service," according to them.

"It has an impact"

Even if there are doubts about the fighting qualities of the North Korean troops, the sheer numbers will pose a challenge.

"Say that Ukraine has 25,000 troops in Kursk. If you put 10,000 North Korean troops there, plus 30-40,000 Russian troops, then, yes, it has an impact," said a Ukrainian army reserve officer who goes by the military nickname Tatarigami.

"They can use them to crush our troops," he told Radio Free Europe.

Meanwhile, US officials have threatened North Korea almost directly.

"Make no mistake: If North Korean troops engage in hostilities, or support military operations against Ukraine, then they will become a legitimate military target," US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said last week during a joint briefing in Washington with officials. high south korean.

This has already happened, Kovalenko told Current Time.

"North Koreans are slowly joining Russian units," he said on November 6.

"They are being trained on how to use the drones. "North Korean officers are learning how to interact with the military under the conditions of modern warfare, as well as just the realities of modern warfare," he added.

Jonas Ohman, a Swedish filmmaker who runs the Lithuania-based NGO Blue/Yellow, which works closely with Ukrainian front-line units, said his contacts reported clashes around October 25 in the Kursk region, where there were a number of North Korean casualties.

He shared a still from a Ukrainian drone video that showed a dead soldier with a North Korean flag on his helmet.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky used the presence of North Korean troops to vent anger over restrictions on Ukraine against using Western weapons for attacks deep inside Russia.

"We see an increase in North Korean forces, but, unfortunately, we are not seeing an increase in the response from our partners," he said./ REL