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ANALYSIS: The 6 big challenges Elon Musk must overcome with his new party

2025-07-07 18:37:12Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
ANALYSIS: The 6 big challenges Elon Musk must overcome with his new party
Elon Musk

Elon Musk's announcement of his new political party, which he says will represent "80% of voters in the center," has caused an international sensation.

The richest man in the world, who last year invested large sums to support Donald Trump in his election campaign, and then became the head of the Federal Agency DOGE with the aim of limiting government spending, has recently become one of the harshest critics of the American president's economic policy.

It is no coincidence that he chose the day after signing Trump's "big and beautiful" tax bill to announce the founding of the "American Party" promising to give the country's citizens their freedom. However, as the Washington Post points out in its analysis, Musk's party faces serious challenges.

Here are some important challenges for the American Party, according to the American newspaper's report:

1- Institutional obstacles and rules for ballots

The American electoral system, based on the idea that “the winner takes all,” does not favor third parties. According to Hans Noel, a professor of political history and political methodology at Georgetown University, in the United States “the institutions do not allow third parties to have much success.”

"You have to win to achieve something. It's not like in other democracies, where you create a small party, get 20 or 30% of the vote, get a share of the seats in parliament and start building from there."

In addition to the restrictive structure of the political system, if Musk wants to support federal candidates in different states or in the future promote a third presidential candidate, the new organization will have to meet the requirements for inclusion on the ballot.

The Federal Election Commission has rules for registering a new political party. Each state also has its own rules, which often include residency requirements and collecting voter signatures.

Mac McCorkle, a professor at Duke University's Sanford School of Public Policy, said the ballot criteria could be a big problem. "To get on the ballot, you need a lot of signatures," said McCorkle, a former Democratic adviser, but he noted that Musk has enough money to manage to secure them.

These requirements have created problems for many third-party candidates. In the 2024 presidential election, no known third-party candidates appeared on the ballot in all 50 states.

2- Historical obstacles and recent challenges

Political parties outside the American two-party system have existed for decades, but their national reach is limited. The last time a presidential candidate who was neither Republican nor Democrat won the electoral vote was in 1968, when five southern states voted for the American Independent Party candidate, George Wallace.

Billionaire Ross Perot received about 19% of the vote in the 1992 election, but no electoral votes. “Perot did very well… but he didn’t win any states, and the way the Electoral College works, he doesn’t get anything,” Noel explains.

Ralph Nader's nomination to the Green Party in 2000 helped, according to experts, create such a close primary in Florida that Republican George W. Bush was elected only after the Supreme Court stepped in. However, Nader did not secure any electoral votes.

Independent senators Bernie Sanders (Vermont) and Angus King (Maine) are joining the Democrats. Two former senators who left the Democratic Party and became independents, Kirsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, did not run in 2024 either.

3- Scope and strategy

Musk wrote on Platform X on Saturday that his goal is next year's midterm elections. He compared his strategy to the tactics of Greek general Epaminondas against the Spartans at the Battle of Leuctra: "Power extremely concentrated at a precise point on the battlefield."

Musk has previously spoken about the possibility of influencing the composition of Congress, focusing on several key seats in the Senate and House of Representatives, but has not mentioned specific targets.

"Given the small differences in the legislature, this would be enough to secure a decisive vote on controversial laws, ensuring they serve the true will of the people," Musk wrote on Platform X on Friday.

Professor McCorkle believes Musk’s candidates won’t win, but he believes they could act as “disruptors,” undermining Republican candidates and garnering enough votes to make a difference in swing states like North Carolina. Musk’s candidates could impact the midterm elections, when “there’s likely to be a decline in MAGA voters,” he says.

Musk strongly opposes the tax bill that Republicans passed and that Trump signed into law this week. Most Americans also disagree, according to a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted last month. 63% of the public surveyed said the $3 trillion debt increase from the spending package is unacceptable.

McCorkle argumenton se kundërshtimi i miliarderit ndaj shpenzimeve qeveritare nuk përbën ende një strategji afatgjatë të partisë dhe se kontratat e mëdha qeveritare që sigurojnë kompanitë e tij mund të minojnë mesazhin e tij: “A do të jetë njeriu që ka më shumë kontrata qeveritare nga sa mund ta imagjinoni, fytyra e liberalëve? Nuk e di.”

4- Ndarje në audiencën e synuar

Të shtunën, Musk dukej se ishte dakord me një përdorues të X i cili paraqiti një platformë partie që bën thirrje për uljen e borxhit kombëtar, modernizimin e ushtrisë me inteligjencë artificiale dhe robotikë, mbështetjen e lirisë së fjalës dhe kufizimin e kontrollit qeveritar, mbështetjen e teknologjisë dhe pjellorisë, si dhe miratimin e politikave të qendrës në të gjitha fushat e tjera.

Por 80% e votuesve të “qendrës” që Musk thotë se po i drejtohet, sipas Noel të Georgetown, mund të mos ketë kohezionin e nevojshëm për të formuar një parti politike. “Njerëzit kanë lidhje me partitë ekzistuese, janë të frustruar me to, nuk i pëlqejnë ato. Ata kanë shqetësime, por nuk ka një bazë koherente votuesish të cilës mund t’i drejtohen”, – tha Noel. “Ku po përpiqet të arrijë ai? Ai 80% nuk është aspak i qartë.”

5- Mbledhja e aleatëve politikë

Pas largimit nga qeveria federale dhe përçarjes së tij të mëvonshme me Trumpin dhe republikanët e Kongresit, ndikimi i Musk në parti duket se po pakësohet. Aleati i Trump, James Fishback, ka thënë tashmë se po formon një komitet të fuqishëm veprimi politik për të frenuar ambiciet politike të Muskut.

Ndërsa pasuria e Muskut ka mbështetur lëvizjet e tij politike, partitë e fuqishme politike mund të mbledhin para përmes rrjeteve të votuesve të interesuar, vëren Noel.

“Përmes këtij procesi, ju kontaktoni me shumë njerëz që jo vetëm ju japin para, por që mund të bëjnë gjëra të tjera për ju – ose të paktën të votojnë për ju”, shton ai. Një parti e re, shtoi ai, do të ketë nevojë për votues të përkushtuar në mënyrë të pazakontë që kanë guximin për të bërë fushatë edhe pas humbjeve fillestare. “Thjesht nuk mund ta blini këtë”, thekson Noel.

Ka të paktën një republikan në Kongres me një mendësi liberale dhe neveri ndaj shpenzimeve të cilin Musk vazhdon ta mbështesë: Përfaqësuesi Thomas Massie (D-Ky.). Dy grupe jo-republikane, Komiteti Kombëtar Libertarian dhe grupi politik qendror “Pa Etiketa” që thonë se duan të punojnë me Musk.

6- Durimi

A mundet një miliarder i çuditshëm, i njohur për tendencën e tij për të shpërfillur rregullat dhe për të vendosur qëllime ambicioze për ekipet e tij, si dhe për projektimin e anijeve kozmike dhe makinave elektrike, të durojë procese të pafundme për të futur kandidatë në fletëvotim vetëm për të humbur zgjedhjet?

Noel dhe McCorkle thonë se ai mund të duhet të përballet me humbje të njëpasnjëshme përpara se të shohë sukses politik.

“I’m not sure he has the patience to do that. How is he going to vet the candidates? There’s going to be a lot of players who are going to think, ‘Hey, Elon Musk will fund me. Why not?’… So he could find himself exposed if he tries to get a lot of people on the ballot,” McCorkle says.

Musk struggled earlier this year when he learned that there are limits to the influence money can have in politics. His teams invested more than $20 million to support a conservative candidate in the Wisconsin Supreme Court election. The race cost more than $100 million in total. Despite the spending and hyperbolic rhetoric from Musk, who argued that the outcome could determine the course of Western civilization because of its implications for Trump’s agenda, left-wing candidate Susan Crawford ultimately won.

Musk also appears to have wavered in recent months about the amount of money he should continue to spend on political causes.

After his candidacy's loss in Wisconsin, Musk had said he planned to significantly reduce his political spending in the future, but left open the possibility of a strong comeback if he saw reason to do so.

However, McCorkle says he can't believe Musk will spend "the rest of his life trying to create a new party." "I think it all has to do with his conflict with Trump and his attempt to damage Trump's political legacy at this time," the professor concludes.


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