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2026-10-27 20:05:04Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The October 27 parliamentary elections in Israel may not immediately produce a clear winner.

Even if Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu loses the support of the majority of voters, that does not necessarily mean that his main opponent, former army chief Gadi Eisenkot, will manage to form the next government.

According to a New York Times analysis, the Israeli electoral system and the fragmentation of the political scene create four possible scenarios after the elections: a fragile opposition coalition, a clear parliamentary majority, a political stalemate, or a minority government.

In Israel, at least 61 of the 120 seats in parliament are needed to secure a majority.

The Kan News/Kantar poll, published on October 18, gave Eisenkot's Yashar party 23 seats, compared to 21 for Netanyahu's Likud. However, neither bloc emerged with a secure majority.

The opposition coalition, a difficult majority

The first scenario envisages the creation of a coalition between parties that oppose Netanyahu, from the left to the nationalist right.

A similar formula was used in 2021, when a heterogeneous alliance managed to remove Netanyahu from power. But internal disagreements led to the government's collapse a year later.

For Eisenkot, a significant obstacle remains the involvement of Arab parties. Their support could be crucial to achieving 61 seats, but some right-wing opposition leaders oppose cooperation with them.

A clear majority or a repeat of 2022

The second scenario is that one of the blocs secures a parliamentary majority, despite poll predictions.

In 2022, Netanyahu and his allies won 64 seats with about 48% of the vote. The electoral threshold of 3.25% played a decisive role, as several opposition parties failed to pass it, leaving more than 200,000 votes unrepresented.

Once again, the fate of small parties and the participation of Arab citizens could significantly influence the final distribution of mandates.

The impasse that could keep Netanyahu in power

The third scenario is that no bloc manages to form a government.

Israel has gone through such a crisis before, holding five elections between 2019 and 2022.

If negotiations fail, Netanyahu could continue to lead a caretaker government until a new executive is formed, even if his party does not come out on top in the elections.

Minority government, the last alternative

The fourth scenario is the creation of a minority government by Eisenkot or another opposition leader, with parliamentary support from Arab parties without their formal inclusion in the cabinet.

However, such a formula would be difficult to sustain due to ideological differences and opposition between parties.

After the vote counting, President Isaac Herzog will hold consultations with political leaders and will give the mandate to form a government to the candidate he believes has the ability to secure parliamentary support.

Therefore, the election result may only be the beginning of a negotiation process that could last weeks or months. In the Israeli political system, coming out on top is not the same as securing power.


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