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The fall of the euro touches new records: The reasons for the sinking

2023-04-20 17:29:55Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The fall of the euro touches new records: The reasons for the sinking
The fall of the euro hits new records, it drops to the limit of 112 lek

The exchange rate of the euro with the lek is breaking records in decline, day after day.

According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the euro was exchanged on Thursday at 112.04 ALL, the lowest level ever recorded.

The euro exchange rate has fallen by 1.9% since the beginning of the year and by 7% compared to the same period a year ago.

According to foreign exchange market agents, the market continues to show large inflows and little demand for the European currency.

This tendency has been outlined since last year, while in the last weeks it is being emphasized even more.

Ndërkohë që kemi hyrë në tremujorin e dytë të vitit, turizmi hyrës vlerësohet të jetë në rritje, duke sjellë rritje të hyrjeve të valutës.

Një efekt të vogël afatshkurtër mund të kenë pasur edhe festat fetare të muajit prill, që shoqërohen me kthimin e emigrantëve në Shqipëri, por edhe me flukse të shtuara të turistëve të huaj.

Në horizont më afatgjatë, ecuria e kursit të këmbimit duket se po ndikohet nga lëvizje të ndjeshme të balancave makroekonomike në favor të forcimit të lekut.

Sipas të dhënave nga Banka e Shqipërisë, deficiti i llogarisë korrente për vitin e kaluar zbriti në 1.08 miliardë euro, në rënie me 7.5% krahasuar me vitin 2021.

Rënia e deficitit të llogarisë korrente ka ardhur kryesisht falë shtimit të të ardhurave nga turizmi, nga eksporti i shërbimeve dhe nga rritja e dërgesave të emigrantëve.

Në terma realë, Banka e Shqipërisë nëvizon se se deficiti i llogarisë korente të Shqipërisë është reduktuar nga niveli 10.8% i PBB-së në vitin 2014 në nivelin 5.9% të PBB-së për vitin 2022.

Një ndikim të rëndësishëm në flukset valutore hyrëse ka pasur edhe ecuria e llogarisë financiare, veçanërisht në zërin e investimeve të huaja direkte. Investimet e huaja direkte shënuan një rekord të ri historik për vitin 2022.

Sipas të dhënave nga Banka e Shqipërisë ato arritën vlerën e 1.37 miliardë eurove, në rritje me 33% krahasuar me një vit më parë.

Një faktor tjetër që ka ndikuar në rritjen e ofertës së euros në tregun valutor shqiptar vlerësohet të ketë qenë edhe struktura e financimit të deficitit buxhetor.

Most of the deficit created for 2022 was financed by using surplus foreign exchange liquidity inherited from the previous year, from the November 2022 Eurobond issue.

Since budget expenditures are generally carried out in Lek, this means that the government has sold significant amounts of Euros in the domestic market.

A theoretical influence in favor of the strengthening of the lek against the euro may have also been given by the monetary and fiscal policies followed by the Albanian authorities. The Bank of Albania has increased the base interest rate to 3% over the course of a year, from 0.5% a year ago.

The increase in interest rates for the lek makes this currency more attractive for investors, but at the same time inhibits the supply of the local currency. The annual growth of the monetary aggregate M2 in the first months of this year is at the lowest levels since 2018.

Meanwhile, the supply of the lek may have been influenced by the fiscal consolidation policy. The budget deficit for 2022 was estimated at around 3.6% of GDP, from 4.5% a year ago.

The strengthening of the lek exchange rate with the euro is a factor with an important impact on the Albanian economy. The strong lek makes imports of goods and services from abroad cheaper. The strengthening of the local currency has been a factor that has partially mitigated external inflationary pressures and has influenced, among other factors, that Albania has lower inflation levels compared to other economies in the region and Europe.

The effect of the appreciation of the lek against the euro has also been positive for borrowers in foreign currency with income in lek, starting from the Albanian government, up to private borrowers.

According to the estimates of the Bank of Albania, the strengthening of the exchange rate of the lek in 2022 has led to the reduction of about 37 billion lek in the value of the public debt in 2022. According to the Ministry of Finance, at the end of 2022 the stock of foreign currency debt fell to about 646 billion ALL, 5.1% compared to a year ago.

The devaluation of the euro has softened the burden of the increase in interest rates for borrowers who have loans with variable interest rates in euros.

However, the strengthening of the lek is having an increasingly negative impact on the exporting sectors of the economy, which generally have revenues in lek, while expenses are in the local currency. In particular, the fashion sectors will face an increasing pressure on their profit margins, due to the parallel effect of the devaluation of the euro, the increase in the legal minimum wage, but also a high organic pressure for wage increases from the labor market. work.

An overvalued local currency is a factor that hurts the competitiveness of exports of goods and services. This includes a growing number of professionals employed remotely abroad and generally paid in foreign currency.

The strengthening of the lek also negatively affects the value of savings in foreign currency, which already clearly constitute the majority in the structure of bank deposits.

Considering the high rate of euroization of the banking sector, the devaluation of the European currency against the lek will affect the further slowdown of asset growth, due to the effect of the exchange rate./ Monitor


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