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Voxpress:

For the second month of 2024, confidence in the economy declines

2024-03-01 12:39:27Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

For the second month of 2024, confidence in the economy declines

The economic sentiment indicator fell for the second consecutive month this year.

According to the Bank of Albania, this indicator for February fell by 2.6 points compared to January. The trend of the indicator of confidence in the economy has been generally negative since the end of the summer season 2023. Since then, an increase was noted only in the month of December 2023, while the other months have marked stagnation or movement in the downward direction. However, it still stands 4.6 points above the long-term average.

The decline in the economic sentiment indicator was determined by the decline in consumer confidence as well as the decline in confidence in the industry, services and trade sectors. Only confidence in the construction sector registered growth.

The industry confidence indicator fell by 8.6 percentage points in February, influenced by less optimistic estimates of current production and ordering contracts. The level of this indicator is almost the same as its historical average. The expectations of the businesses of this sector for production, employment and prices in the future are decreasing compared to those of a month ago.

The confidence indicator in services fell by 2.2 percentage points in February. However, it remains about 6 percentage points above the long-term average. Both constituent components of the indicator, the current performance of the activity as well as the level of demand, have registered a decline. Business expectations for future prices are also falling.

The trade confidence indicator fell sharply by about 10 percentage points in February, mainly influenced by less optimistic assessments of current business performance and employment expectations. Businesses in the sector expect a decline in orders and business performance in the near future as well. The current level of the trade confidence indicator is close to the historical average. Expectations for future prices are estimated to be rising.

The confidence indicator in construction increased by 6.8 percentage points in February. This indicator is about 25 percentage points above the long-term average. The increase this month was largely driven by better estimates for current construction activity. In parallel, expectations for future employment and prices are rising.

The consumer confidence indicator continued to decline for the fourth consecutive month, dropping by 0.8 percentage points in February. However, the current level of the indicator remains close to the historical average. The decline in consumer confidence this month was determined by less optimistic expectations about the financial situation and purchases in large amounts for the future. Expectations for the general price level and for future employment have been revised downwards.


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