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Which of the Balkan countries would benefit more from integration into the EU market?

2024-02-29 13:40:31Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Which of the Balkan countries would benefit more from integration into the EU
Western Balkan countries

In times of geopolitical tensions and reduced confidence in external growth, it is important to understand what are the potential benefits of future market integration policies in the European Union. Integration into the European Union includes the benefit of the freedom of movement of goods, capital and people, which will bring about a reduction in the costs of trade and migration for the economies of the Western Balkans. The forecasts of the study 'Economic Effects of Market Integration in the Western Balkans' carried out by the World Bank, show that trade costs would decrease by 4%, while migration costs by 3%.

EU membership can bring much more benefits to the Balkans than regional integration. The EU is the largest trading partner for the Western Balkans, since over 70% of the exports of the Balkan countries are made with EU member states. In addition, the EU offers access to a market of more than 500 million consumers. The size of this market offers more new jobs and economic growth, compared to a regional market of the Western Balkans with only 18.5 million inhabitants. Accession to the EU ensures compliance with EU regulations and standards, which can improve the quality of goods and services produced and facilitate the movement of people and capital.

'Scan Intel' has analyzed the data to understand how the gains would be distributed in the countries of the Western Balkans from the integration in the common market. The figures show that all Western Balkan economies would generate profits ranging from 2.8% to 5.04% of the Gross Domestic Product. These benefits from EU membership will be attributed to the reduction of the price index and access to new goods.

If we analyze the real effects for each economy, the data shows that Albania, North Macedonia and Montenegro will gain more. Specifically, Albania would benefit from around 2.5% growth from the facilitation of border trade, while North Macedonia and Montenegro would gain less than 3%. The graph illustrated below also shows this. In addition to the profits to be generated, trade facilitation reforms would reduce border crossing times by 3 hours. We also note that although they score lower gains compared to their southern neighbors, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Kosovo also score significant welfare gains from improved border efficiency. Serbia records gains of around 2%, Bosnia and Herzegovina around 1.5%, and Kosovo around 2.1%.

The new EU Enlargement Plan is based on 4 main pillars, where the first pillar is the increase of economic integration with the Single Market of the European Union, while the second pillar is the increase of economic integration within the Western Balkans through the Common Regional Market. This step is expected to create an economic growth of 10% in the economies of each Western Balkan country.


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