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The war in Gaza, the WB forecast for further oil price increases

2023-11-03 11:36:36Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

The war in Gaza, the WB forecast for further oil price increases

The stabilization of the price of oil on the stock exchange, which remains at the limit of 90 dollars, after the shock caused to the market by the Russia-Ukraine war, is not expected to last for long. According to the World Bank, oil prices are likely to rise to more than $150 a barrel if the conflict between Israel and Hamas escalates and spreads to the Middle East. The World Bank does not rule out the possibility that the conflict between Jews and Palestinians will affect the increase in prices for raw materials, energy, agricultural products, and food.

Oil has already risen 6 percent since the latest round of fighting that began on Oct. 7, when Hamas militants from Gaza attacked southern Israel and killed more than 1,400 civilians, taking about 240 hostages. Israel has responded with an incessant bombardment of Gaza, which the Hamas-run Health Ministry says has killed more than 8,000 Palestinians, nearly half of them children. The conflict between Israel and Hamas comes as Russia's war in Ukraine has already put pressure on markets, with the war being the "biggest blow to commodity markets since the 1970s," World Bank chief economist Indermit Gill warned.

The World Bank predicts that at worst we could have an oil crisis similar to the 1970s, which could push oil prices into the range of $140 to $157 per barrel.

"The latest conflict in the Middle East comes on the heels of the biggest shock to commodity markets since the 1970s, Russia's war with Ukraine. This had devastating effects on the global economy that continue to this day. If the conflict were to escalate, the global economy would face a double energy shock for the first time in decades," said Indermit Gill, chief economist at the World Bank.

He stressed that the scenario of a "double energy shock", affecting both oil and gas supplies, had not happened for decades, so he asked international lawmakers to be vigilant about the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East. In an optimistic scenario, oil would rise between 3% and 13%, with the price ranging between $93 and $102 per barrel. An average scenario sees prices rising to $121, while a worst-case scenario would see oil hit $157, surpassing the levels of the 2008 financial crisis.


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