ZHYTJA E PALLATEVE TË ALABARIT / Kompania: Gjithçka normale, katet e para do kthehen në parkimenëntokësore!

 Kliko këtu për të tjera
Voxpress:

Who is devaluing the Euro? Tourism according to experts, dirty money according to citizens

2026-02-10 07:56:22Biznes SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

During January, "Monitor" conducted a survey with financial market analysts regarding the factors that have influenced the performance of the exchange rate between the Euro and the Lek.

Experts were asked to rate the impact of a list of factors, on a scale ranging from one to five.

Based on their responses, the factor with the highest average weight in the continuation of the decline in the Euro-Lek exchange rate has been tourism and in general the increase in services exports in the Albanian economy. The expert panel has assessed this factor with an impact of 4.5 (out of a maximum scale of 5).

According to the latest data from the Bank of Albania, for the entire 9-month period of 2025, net income from tourism reached 2.1 billion euros, an annual increase of 19.6%.

Tourism continues to be the main contributor to the income item in the country's balance of payments.

In addition to tourism, the services sector in general continues to make a high contribution to the growth of the country's exports. For the entire 9 months of 2025, services brought net income to the economy worth almost 3.5 billion euros, an increase of 16.4% compared to the previous year.

The second most selected factor by the surveyed experts is remittances. On average, the impact of this factor on the exchange rate is estimated at 3.91.

For the first nine months, remittances reached 817 million euros, up 5.8% compared to the previous year. New waves of Albanian emigration in recent years have boosted remittances, positively impacting the country's current account balance.

The third factor in terms of impact, according to experts, is informal foreign exchange flows, with an average rating of 3.83. Illegal foreign exchange flows are assessed to have a slightly lower impact, with an average rating of 3.58.

In general, informal and illegal flows have always had a significant impact on exchange rate trends. This perception seems to be shared by experts, who list them among the factors influencing the exchange rate.

Foreign investments in real estate are also rated among the influential factors, with an average level of 3.66.

The real estate sector dominated foreign investment for the fourth consecutive year in 2025, with an increasingly high share. For the first 9 months of 2025, foreign investment in real estate reached a value of 403 million euros. The value of foreign investment in property has increased by 50% compared to the same period last year. Investments in this sector account for more than 33% of foreign investment this year, up from 23% a year ago.

In the ranking of the average expert assessment of the factors that have influenced the exchange rate, the trade balance follows, with an average assessment of 3.25, and the reduction of the budget deficit and public debt, at 2.83.

The public thinks the euro fell due to informal flows

To compare the opinions of experts with those of the wider public, “Monitor” conducted a survey on its website between late January and early February. Participants were asked about the main factors that, in their opinion, have determined the decline in the Euro exchange rate against the Lek, with the same alternatives that were presented to the experts.

According to the survey responses, most participants believe that the main factors that have led to the decline in the Euro exchange rate are illegal foreign exchange flows, with 36% of responses, and informal flows, with 30% of them.

Other factors follow with a significant difference, starting with tourism, with 13% of responses, foreign investment in property, with 9%, and remittances, with 5%.

The survey results show that, in the perception of public opinion, the informal and illegal economy is the factor with the main influence on the decline in the exchange rate between the Euro and the Lek.

According to statistics from the Bank of Albania, the Euro was exchanged on average last year for 97.85 Lekë, the lowest level ever recorded. However, the rate of exchange rate decline in 2025 was significantly lower compared to the previous two years. For 2025, the official average Euro-Lek exchange rate fell by 2.8%, down from 7.4% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2023.

However, the slowdown in the exchange rate decline can be explained to a significant extent by the interventions of the Central Bank. According to official data published so far, for the first nine months of 2025, the Bank of Albania has purchased a total of 825.6 million euros in the domestic foreign exchange market.

This is the highest historical value of purchases by the Bank of Albania in the foreign exchange market for this period of the year. In the absence of these purchases, the exchange rate would have suffered an even greater decline. monitor


Në përputhje me standarded JTI

Video

SHIKO KANALIN NE YOUTUBE
×