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How the Iran War and Its Economic Consequences Could Lead to Trump's Downfall

2026-03-15 22:30:32Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA EDUARDO PORTER
How the Iran War and Its Economic Consequences Could Lead to Trump's Downfall

By Eduardo Porter – The Guardian

Donald Trump is still confident in the success of his capture of Nicolás Maduro. The easy abduction of the Venezuelan president not only gave Trump control of the country’s oil and critical mineral resources. It allowed him to strangle Cuba’s government by denying it access to energy, raising the tantalizing prospect of toppling a communist regime that has vexed Washington since 1959.

Trump is confident that his joint venture with Israel in Iran will be just as good. The barrage of Iranian missiles and drones aimed at Israel and Iran’s Arab neighbors has done nothing to change Trump’s mind that he can win, no matter how he defines “win.”

Whatever the war does to energy markets, the American economy can withstand it. “Short-term oil prices, which will fall rapidly when the destruction of the Iranian nuclear threat is complete, are a very small price to pay for US and World Security and Peace,” he noted on social media, adding: “ONLY FOOLS WOULD THINK DIFFERENTLY!”

Trump’s sense of invincibility is also due to the fact that his erratic policymaking, so far, has not caused as much damage as he initially feared. Despite his tariff wall, the fragmentation of the federal workforce, the deportation of immigrant workers and his relentless attacks on the Federal Reserve, just a few weeks ago leading economists were wondering whether the economy could do the hardest thing: a gentle descent from an era of high inflation.

The United States is also perhaps the most insulated of the major advanced economies from a rise in energy prices. Crude oil imports have fallen sharply as domestic production has increased since the early 2000s. Natural gas, whose domestic price is less sensitive to increases in global markets, has taken on a larger role in energy supply.

Today, oil meets about 38% of U.S. energy consumption, almost 10 percentage points less than during the 1973 oil crisis, when Arab oil producers halted shipments to the U.S. to punish it for supporting Israel in the Yom Kippur War. Meanwhile, natural gas's share has risen from 30% to 36%.

European markets were shaken when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil passes, and plunged when Qatar shut down liquefied natural gas plants. Yet on this side of the Atlantic, Trump's favorite gauge of the US economy, the S&P 500 index, is still near its all-time high.

But no matter how high Trump has risen, he is still facing defeat. Not military defeat against what remains of Iran's armed forces. He is about to be defeated by the only force ever capable of stopping American military adventures: the opposition of the American public.

The war on Iran has been deeply unpopular from the start, an unusual turn for a nation that tends to support sending children to fight, even under dubious justifications. Its economic effects will not help support for war in the future.

And energy self-sufficiency cannot completely insulate the United States. The price of oil is determined on global markets, whether it comes from Texas or the Middle East. Gasoline has already hit its highest level since Trump took office, surpassing $3.50 a gallon. The government now projects that retail gasoline prices will not return to their 2025 levels until the fall of 2027, while retail oil prices will remain above their pre-war levels at least until the end of next year.

Trucking companies will largely pass on the price increases to customers. Farmers facing higher fuel and fertilizer prices will also see them pass on the price of food. Retailers and airlines will also be hit by rising fuel costs.

All of this will undoubtedly show up in the March reading on inflation, which had stabilized in February at a 2.4% increase from a year earlier. And all of this will prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Meanwhile, expensive gasoline is likely to hit sales of Americans' beloved SUVs.

All of this will hit Trump's popularity where it hurts.

The president understands these risks, so he is doing his best to lower oil prices. The administration unveiled a plan to secure tankers and escort them through the strait. It has waived sanctions on some Russian oil exports and is exploring ways to expand Venezuelan oil production to fill any supply shortfalls.

But reversing the biggest oil price spike in more than three decades will take more than that. Either the war ends or the US degrades Iran's capabilities to the point where the country can no longer threaten oil tankers moving through the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump, according to his public statements, simultaneously believes he can achieve Tehran’s “unconditional surrender.” But his advisers in Washington must have learned by now that you can bomb a country until it’s blown to pieces from the air and still not win the war in the long run. Neither Iran’s Revolutionary Guard nor the Basij—institutions hated by most Iranians—will simply give up their weapons and risk their lives. No matter how much Iranian infrastructure is destroyed, there are thousands of armed fighters on the ground capable of fighting and supporting a hostile regime in Tehran.

Trump could back down from demanding “unconditional surrender,” invent alternative terrain to claim victory and bring his fleet home. But that would hardly look good. Alternatively, he could deploy ground forces, an option he has not ruled out. Or he could keep bombing, shifting to civilian targets once he has finished destroying Iran’s military infrastructure.

Neither approach is quick, however, meaning the economic pain from this war is likely to be long-lasting. And Trump may learn that, however easy it might be to capture Maduro, beheading U.S. rivals is not necessarily a winning strategy anywhere in the world.


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