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Can NATO protect Eastern Europe?

2022-07-01 21:58:34Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Can NATO protect Eastern Europe?
The protection of Romanian infrastructure in the Black Sea is a natural task for NATO units

NATO may be able to protect its Eastern European members from Russian aggression - but not from their own domestic problems. These are becoming more and more dangerous, warns Sabina Fati.

Russia is mentioned 14 times in the new NATO strategic concept, China 11 times. The fact that these two countries, and a possible alliance between Moscow and Beijing, are at this point in the spotlight illustrates the future dangers that NATO countries see and for which they must imperatively prepare.

The eastern flank of the Alliance's territory is strengthened in several ways: Poland and Romania gain value as essential pillars of NATO in Eastern Europe. Troops under direct US command will be deployed in the region to contain Russia. In addition, NATO remains open to other new members and now classifies the Western Balkans and the Black Sea as "strategically important".

Issues of political instability and loyalty

The new strategic concept emphasizes that NATO can no longer realistically exclude the possibility of an attack on the sovereignty and territorial integrity of certain members of the Alliance. The document describes the abyss, on the edge of which Europeans are not the only ones to find themselves: Syria and Russia have already used chemical weapons in their recent history, China and Iran are secretly developing nuclear capabilities, and dangerous non-state actors continue to arm themselves.

Beyond this depressing overall picture described in the new strategic concept, there are a number of threats coming from within NATO states. The Alliance doesn't seem to be taking them seriously at the moment. Some NATO countries have serious problems of loyalty to core Euro-Atlantic values. Political instability in some member countries is undermining the Alliance's cohesion, and the Balkans continue to wobble under the weight of historic animosities in the region.

NATO may be able to protect Romania and Poland from Russian aggression, but not from the harm these countries inflict on themselves: in the two eastern EU and NATO member states, justice is clearly subordinate to politics. But this evil, which destroys the rule of law is ignored - because of the necessary help from Romania and Poland for Ukraine and for Ukrainian refugees.

Populism is even more dangerous in the East than in the West

Hungary seems to be closer to Russia than to NATO. Turkey is pursuing its strategy of increasing its influence in both the Middle East and the Balkans. Bulgaria finds itself on an unstable footing, which is unbalanced whenever it does not lean towards Moscow. Similarly, Slovakia and the Czech Republic have never taken an irreversible path to the West, while Croatia has one center of power that focuses on Russia (the president) and another that prefers the West (the prime minister). For its part, Bulgaria is undermining North Macedonia, Tirana still dreams of Greater Albania, and political Serbia is anyway on Russia's side. All these cracks in the region are to Moscow's advantage: it can fish in murky waters and seek its advantages there.

In Romania, Prime Minister Nicolae Ciuca, a pro-Western general, remains defenseless, even though justice acquitted him of plagiarism in his doctoral thesis. The Romanian state is not only becoming more and more paternalistic, but also tending towards autocracy: politics dominates the mass media and the judiciary, even the Constitutional Court. The model of Viktor Orban's Hungary is increasingly being extended to other countries.

Populism is making a strong comeback everywhere in Europe, but this phenomenon is even more dangerous in the East than in the West, because the institutions are still weak and do not even want to defend themselves. In this part of the continent, democracy has so far been more of a blip in a history dominated by dictatorships and autocracies. The question is: can NATO trust countries that increasingly give up democratic freedoms and stifle the rule of law?/ DW


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