
Donald Trump's return to the US presidency has raised expectations on both sides of the political spectrum in Tirana, but foreign policy experts emphasize that Albania should be careful regarding Kosovo.
On January 20, Donald Trump will be sworn in as the 47th president of the United States of America, returning to the White House for a new term, 4 years after losing the election to Joe Biden.
Trump's return is not only a domestic American interest, but has created different expectations in every corner of the world, regarding the importance of the role that the US has in the international arena, but not least due to the atypical profile and political language that the Republican president uses.
International analysts have begun to make predictions about the impact of his presidency on the Middle East, the military conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, or to raise questions about the future of the NATO alliance and US relations with the European Union.
Although Trump's political rhetoric has raised hopes among right-wing conservative political forces in Europe and beyond, his victory in Tirana was met with equal enthusiasm by both the opposition that identifies with conservative ideology and the ruling left.
During the Joe Biden administration, opposition leader Sali Berisha was declared 'non grata' by the US State Department and is expected to appear in court on corruption charges, but his party hopes that the 'non grata' will be revoked with the new administration.
On the other hand, Prime Minister Edi Rama, a former public critic of Trump, sees himself as a suitable partner for the new administration. Meanwhile, his government is paving the way for plans by Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, to build tourist resorts on the island of Sazan and the Zvërnec area in Albania.
Will the approach to Albanian politics change?!
Experts in international relations are divided on the predictions for the direct impact that the new American administration may have on Albanian politics, but they agree on the point that Albania should maintain the good relations it has with the US and aim to strengthen them with the Trump administration.
Ditmir Bushati, former Foreign Minister under the Socialist government, says that for Albania, the strategic partnership with the US is irreplaceable despite political changes.
“What we know from past experience cannot necessarily serve as a guide for the next four years, as Trump’s return to the White House is a confirmation of a different worldview than the one we have been accustomed to since the fall of the Berlin Wall,” he told BIRN, adding that “despite different approaches, the US will continue to play an important role in security and rule of law issues in Albania.”
Dashamir Shehi, chairman of the Movement for National Development Party, believes that the new administration will be a continuation of American policy. What needs to change, he suggests, is our country's approach to using the long-standing good relationship with this administration to influence the Kosovo issue.
"The report should be long-term and constructive, based on other principles, not on local problems or personal troubles, but on the long-term perspective of Albania and Kosovo in the Balkans," says Shehi.
Meanwhile, in the domestic arena, the relationship with the US is being misused by Albanian politics, according to him. "Rama is using it for electoral strategy by giving Sazan the impression that we have a good relationship with America, while the other side is walking with the false illusion that they (the new administration) are our friends."
But Edit Harxhi, former Deputy Foreign Minister in Berisha's government, believes that the change in political course in the White House will also be felt in Albania in favor of the opposition.
“I am sure that this will greatly affect the political climate in Albania, but it will also affect the current climate in terms of the relationship between the so-called new justice, which has been developed by George Soros’s offices in Albania and of course strongly supported by Edi Rama for his personal purposes…” she told BIRN. According to Harxhi, the impact will be directly related to “the files that are in the US Department of Justice regarding Albania, such as the McGonigal file.”
Regarding Berisha's 'non grata', she suggests that the new administration will change the foreign policy approach to sanctions against leaders or powerful people in the world.
"I think we are close to finalizing an important moment in American foreign policy, that of not directly interfering in the daily politics or domestic politics of other countries, including Albania, but leaving their fate to their peoples," says Harxhi.
While for Bushati, the impact on Albanian politics can be seen after a few years and depending on the impact it will have on the political spectrum in Europe.
"In the Albanian political context, this is like looking for Eskimos in the desert," he paraphrases the impact that the 'competition' between the two parties to unilaterally lobby the new American administration could have.
Megjithatë, ai thotë se, “duhet pranuar se nuk jemi një rast përjashtimor pasi në Europë po shohim një garë mes partive të spektrit konservator për t’u konsideruar si partnerë të Trumpit shoqëruar me kritika të ashpra nga Elon Musk ndaj partive tradicionale në vendet kyçe të Europës”.
Kjo, sipas Bushatit, “do të thotë se spektri politik i pas disa viteve mund të jetë mund të jetë krejt i ndryshëm nga ai që jemi mësuar ne, si pasojë e ndikimit amerikan në Europë”.
Edit Harxhi mendon se lobingjet e njëanshme të Ramës me Sorosin apo politikanëve të tjerë për arsye personale e kanë dëmtuar aleancën e fortë mes dy vendeve.
Ndaj ajo sugjeron se “ka ardhur koha që të bëhet një lobing mbarëkombëtar “për të avancuar qëllimet e anëtarësimit në BE por edhe proceseve të tjera demokratike në botë duke përfshirë këtu me aq sa ka fuqi Shqipëria, zgjidhjen e çështjes së Kosovës dhe zgjidhjen e dialogut me Serbinë”.
Rrezikimi i balancave në Ballkan dhe roli i Shqipërisë në çështjen e Kosovës
Pritshmëria për administratën e Trump ka dhe në rajonin e Ballkanit dhe angazhimi i saj për një zgjidhje përfundimtare të dialogut të zgjatur mes Kosovës dhe Serbisë nën ndërmjetësimin e Brukselit.
Gjatë mandatit të parë, i dërguari special i SHBA Richard Grenell dhe këshilltari i sigurisë kombëtar të Trump, Richard O ‘Brien ndërmjetësoi një marrëveshje mes udhëheqësve serbë dhe kosovarëve që vetë presidenti e pagëzoi si “historike” dhe u firmos në zyrën e tij.
Marrëveshja ishte kryesisht për çështje ekonomike, ndërsa çështjet e ndjeshme politike mes dy vendeve vijojnë të mbeten në tavolinë, ndërsa incidentet në kufirin mes dy vendeve i rrezikojnë seriozisht rezultatet e këtyre negociatave.
Pyetja në Ballkan është si do të ndikojë administrata e Trump në balancat e brishta në Ballkan dhe dialogun Kosovë-Serbi, ndërsa për Shqipërinë si anëtare e NATO-s çfarë roli mund të luajë në këtë drejtim.
Për Bushatin situata në rajon është e lidhur me marrëdhënien mes BE-së dhe SHBA-së.
“Një dobësim i lidhjes euro-atlantike nuk është ogur i mirë për rajonin tonë, ku SHBA-të konsiderohen si garantues të perimetrit të sigurisë, ndërsa europianët “alergjik” ndaj forcës. Mbetet të shihet nëse administrata Trump do të ekspozojë më tej dobësitë e BE-së apo do të nxisë një riorganizim europian në një shkallë më të gjerë”- thotë ai.
Sipas ish-ministrit nga kjo do të varet edhe ecuria e dialogut mes Kosovës dhe Serbisë dhe e ardhmja e rajonit tonë.
Për Bushatin tabloja e Ballkanit është e tillë ku; “Serbia kërkon të përfitojë nga rrethanat gjeopolitike që shtyjnë drejt një rendi të ri botëror. Shqipëria jeton me ankthin e pranisë në tryezën ku supozohet se do të formatohet rendi rajonal. Ndërsa Kosova këmbëngul për të mos vendosur në kolateral shtetësinë e saj si një prej produkteve më simbolike të rendit të tanishëm, themelet e të cilit kanë kohë që lëkunden”.
Në këtë situatë ai nuk sheh ndonjë rol të madh të Shqipërisë për shkak të gabimeve në politikën e jashtme.
"Albania has lost one of its main foreign policy assets, its weight and influence over Albanians in the region, and it seems to compensate for it by organizing international meetings," says Bushati, adding that on the other hand, "Serbia has skillfully exploited the war in Ukraine, fending off Western pressure to join the sanctions against Russia, and earning money from the sale of weapons destined for Ukraine."
Dashamir Shehi and Edit Harxhi believe that Albania should aim for a stronger role in the Kosovo issue in the hope that the new American administration will commit to a final solution.
"First we need to resolve the bilateral agreement on how we will present ourselves at the negotiating table," says Shehi, but adds that unfortunately "we are in an election period in both countries and if this report is misused for electoral issues, it will harm this issue."
According to Shehi, if Albania will have a homogeneous relationship with Kosovo and present themselves with the same claims and with the same platform, it will weigh more towards a definitive solution. "But if the two countries enter with different policies, it will give the other parties in the Balkans an advantage and we could end up with a solution that could be drastic," he adds.
The former Deputy Foreign Minister also suggests that after Trump's inauguration in the White House, Albania should have clear foreign policy goals and raise the issue of Kosovo's NATO membership in the international arena.
"Kosovo's NATO membership should no longer be seen as a negotiation process, but there should be a political decision for which Albania should have an extraordinary lobbying role alongside our international partners, starting with the US," she emphasizes, adding that "this would be possible if there were a common European and American stance regarding the security of Europe and the salvation of Kosovo and the Balkans from Russian influence and, of course, from the games played by Serbia."/ BIRN