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Russia's Army: Overrated Power

2022-09-29 19:42:54Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA MIODRAG SORIC

Russia's Army: Overrated Power

When he launched the invasion of Ukraine, Putin probably believed in a quick victory. But the latest mobilization shows that this was an illusion. How strong is the Russian military really?

After the fall of the Soviet Union, Moscow did everything it could to maintain its status as a superpower – including its status as a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The Soviet Union could not compete economically with many Western countries. But the Kremlin has always justified Moscow's claim as a military superpower. Russia, it has been said for decades, has one of the largest and most powerful militaries in the world – including nuclear weapons. President Putin regularly sent the world images of perfectly choreographed military parades in Moscow or maneuvers by his armed forces.

But how powerful an army really is not demonstrated by parades in Red Square, but on the battlefield? And on the battlefield, the Russians are experiencing great losses from a much smaller army, like that of Ukraine, an army which until a few years ago did not exist at all. How can this happen?

How big is Putin's army?

According to Margarete Klein of the Foundation for Science and Policy in Berlin, the Russian armed forces on paper may be 1 million, and in the future they claim to be even up to 1.1 million soldiers. But the real size is smaller, she explains to Deutsche Wellen. A large part of the Russian units that are ready for action are already deployed in Ukraine. They have suffered heavy losses, due to the killings and injuries of soldiers", she says. There are no exact figures, but the US secret service CIS believes that Russia has so far suffered tens of thousands of dead and wounded.

By far, peacetime regiments stationed in Asiatic Russia have suffered the most, says George Barros of the US Institute for War Studies. The idea that Russia has reserves of soldiers ready for action has nothing to do with reality, he told DW. According to Barros, the course of the war so far shows that the world has long overestimated the strength of the Russian army.

Margarete Klein explains that Russia must now call up reservists to fill the gaps that have arisen as a result of the losses. Ultimately, according to Barros, Putin's goal in calling in reservists is to hold the current front line, not to gain more territory.

Russia's Army: Overrated Power
Reservists in Bataysk

Soldiers without training and equipment

Russia's military power can be seen in who is currently mobilizing. "There are men who are over 50 years old and have health problems," says the expert. Numerous examples on social networks confirm these statements.

Reservists must be trained and equipped before being sent to war, Barros says. Some of them will only be trained for one or two months, which is not enough. But many others are sent straight to the front with no training and no equipment at all, he says. He does not believe that military successes can be achieved with such reservists. The number of dead and injured is only likely to increase.

Russian security expert Pavel Luzin agrees with these statements. He currently lives in the United States of America. In his opinion, Ukraine will continue to fight, regardless of the so-called referendum that Putin's vassals held in eastern Ukraine. Furthermore, Luzin believes that the Russian armaments industry is unable to provide supplies in the short term – certainly not for the currently called-up reservists. While Margarete Klein thinks there are still old weapons and shells from the Soviet era stored in Russia.

But even here it is not certain whether a large part of these weapons have not been resold due to corruption or whether these materials can be used in war. According to Klein, Russian industry lacks chips for high-precision weapons and other spare parts. But Russia has the advantage of having more people at its disposal and thus can send more and more reservists to war in the long run, Ted Galen Carpenter of the CATO Institute in Washington tells DW.

Russia's Army: Overrated Power

Many components are needed to be successful in war, says George Barros. Soldiers, modern weapons, good training, leadership, motivation, logistics, are just some of them. Simply sending more men to the front will not solve the problem the Russians have. Ukrainian forces will continue to advance. "Your offensive is not over," says Barros.

The Russians, on the other hand, are currently happy if they can maintain their current positions. In the past, Russian forces were clearly superior to those of Ukraine, both in terms of the quality of weapons and the number of soldiers. But Moscow's military leadership was unable to use this superiority to achieve strategic goals in the war, he analyzes.

The use of nuclear weapons is aimed at intimidating the West

This cannot be achieved even with well-trained and well-equipped mercenaries like the so-called Wagner group. Their number before the war was about 8000-9000 fighters. But they will not be used only in Ukraine, according to Barros. In eastern Ukraine they fought as simple infantry soldiers. Barros does not think they will significantly affect the course of the war.

Experts agree that Russia's threats to use nuclear weapons aim to intimidate the West. "This threat is not new," says Margarete Klein of the Foundation for Science and Policy. The goal is to undermine Western support for Ukraine. The use of nuclear weapons has no military effect. The mission can only make sense politically; for example when the regime in Moscow faces a military defeat. But Margarete Klein considers the use of nuclear weapons impossible. This would mean that Putin would lose support from China or India. On the other hand, Ted Galen Carpenter of CATO says: "If Putin is faced with the choice between using nuclear weapons or having to answer for his crimes in an international court, he will choose the nuclear option."

Barros and other experts believe that after the fake referendums currently taking place, Putin will annex eastern and southern Ukraine. After that he could also use the recruits and troops of the Ministry of Interior in these areas, which is currently prohibited for legal reasons. "The Russian forces need rest, they are exhausted," says Barros. He expects further attacks from the Ukrainian side this winter.

A quick end to the war on the horizon?

CATO's Ted Galen Carpenter says Russia wants a quick end to the war. Ukraine and the West must be ready to negotiate. Margarete Klein and George Barros, who do not believe in a quick end to the war, see things very differently. Putin hopes the West will drop its support for Ukraine. According to Klein, the outcome of the war actually depends on this continued support of Ukraine. This war can only really end if Russia suffers a total defeat, says Russian security expert Pavel Luzin. /DW

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