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The gloomy expectations of international analysts for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue

2022-08-16 18:45:14Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
The gloomy expectations of international analysts for the Kosovo-Serbia dialogue
The Prime Minister of Kosovo, Albin Kurti and the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic

On Thursday, August 18, the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia will meet in Brussels, amid increasing tensions and rhetoric between the two countries. International experts do not expect any agreement to be reached, although the meetings are seen as a positive development for reducing tensions in the region. Experts call on the European Union to change its expansion policies as the influence of the European bloc has declined.

The recent tensions between Kosovo and Serbia have prompted the European Union and NATO to invite Prime Minister Albin Kurti and President Aleksandar Vučić to Brussels on August 17 and 18.

This will be the third meeting in Brussels between them. The first meeting was in June 2021 and the second one a month later, in July.

None of these meetings produced results.

Experts are not optimistic about the current meeting either.

What incites even more mistrust is the harsh rhetoric of the leaders of Kosovo and Serbia.

"It would be completely irresponsible to exclude the possibility of new tensions and a new conflict, with all these aggressive policies of Belgrade. It is possible", Prime Minister Kurti told "Reuters" on August 10.

"Don't kill people. And we don't want to kill anyone, we don't intend to... I'm telling you, they are preparing the liquidations of our people in the north," said the Serbian president, Vučić, the day after.

After these statements, the European Union warned them that "high-level politicians from both sides will be held responsible for escalating the situation leading to increased tensions and opportunities for violence in the region."

The American ambassador in Belgrade, Christopher Hill, although worried about the inciting rhetoric, is more optimistic about the dialogue between them.

"Personally, I think we have more reasons for optimism than pessimism, but also that all parties should curb their rhetoric a little, because there were some harsh words, which do not help this process much", said Ambassador Christopher Hill during the interview with Serbian public television on August 13.

However, analysts are more gloomy in their predictions.

"This process is ridiculous. From the beginning, the goals of the dialogue have not been defined. The clear goal should be mutual recognition and sovereignty for Kosovo and Serbia. If Serbia is not prepared to accept this, it is a waste of time to dig into the edges of small agreements", said the American expert, David Phillips, for the Voice of America.

As for Mrs. Ivana Stradner from the American "Enterprise" Institute, the risk of the EU's failure in the Balkans risks losing the credibility of the European bloc as a whole.

"I am afraid that the EU does not have a clear plan for the Balkans. This is my main concern because I do not have much hope for the next meeting to solve all the problems that have existed for more than a decade. This will be a serious test for the EU if they are willing and able to resolve this crisis before the autumn. They need to act as soon as possible, because recently they announced the further enlargement of the EU and gave other countries like Moldova the opportunity to join the European Union. If they don't send a strong signal to the Balkans then the question for countries like Ukraine and Moldova would be whether the commitment to EU enlargement is a false promise," Ms. Stradner told VOA.

The dialogue in Brussels started in March 2011, the first two years only technical and then at the level of political leaders.

The first agreement in July 2011 on free movement was what fueled the recent tensions in Kosovo. The agreement allowed citizens to cross the border with an ID card and a written "entry/exit" document issued at the border. Serbia started its implementation immediately, while Kosovo did not, allowing persons with Serbian documents to enter Kosovo without the need for an additional document.

Prime Minister Kurti decided to demand its implementation, which led to tensions and blocking of roads in the north. Kosovo also decided to implement the other point of the 11-year-old agreement, which requires Kosovo Serb residents to use Kosovo license plates. Currently they use Serbian license plates.

In 2013, the then Prime Minister Hashim Thaçi and his Serbian counterpart, Ivica Dacic, signed a 15-point agreement for the normalization of relations, which, among other things, provided for the establishment of the Association of Kosovo Serb Municipalities.

The official of the US Department of State, Gabriel Escobar, has requested that this issue be discussed on August 18.

But the fact that more than 30 agreements have been signed, many of which have never been understood whether they are really implemented or not, raises fears about the loss of confidence in the EU's ability to achieve success with this dialogue.

"It is not up to the EU to impose solutions on partners, especially on those partners who have clearly stated that their strategic objective is to join the EU. The path to the EU is in fact the tool that the EU has and of course we are using it," said EU spokesman Peter Stano recently.

Serbia has never gone to Brussels with good will, or with the desire to achieve any real results. Of course, dialogue is important and the parties must stay in touch with each other. But there is no reason to think that Serbia's approach this time will be different from what it was in the past when it appeared and tried to embarrass and mock the Kosovo delegation. On August 18, we will see a repeat of what we have seen before," Mr. Phillips told VOA.

"The European Union has made a lot of mistakes so far by using the carrot much more than the stick. But the other issue is: why does the EU, especially after the statement of the French president Macron a few years ago about the further expansion of the EU, not make it clear whether this expansion is real or not? + I think we should also deal with the leaders in the West, they should be honest and make it clear if they really want them to be part of the European Union, because in general corruption in the Balkans is very high and many countries currently they are not full democracies", Mrs. Stradner adds further.

The non-granting of visa liberalization for Kosovo, the endless postponements of the process for all Balkan countries have only weakened the influence of Brussels in the region, says Mrs. Stradner.

Michael Leigh, the former director-general for enlargement at the European Commission, who told VOA that the political level of the EU is still not accepting the new ideas of academics who say that the membership process should change, agrees with him. sh. making the Balkan countries part of the EU common market, even before the membership becomes really credible.

"Some organizations have come up with other more ambitious ideas, so that the whole process of expansion is carried out gradually, so that the countries become in some way "members" step by step, and not after they have fulfilled all the conditions. These ideas have not been considered at the political level yet,” Mr. Leigh told VOA.

He says that the pledges that the EU recently made to Ukraine and other countries of the former Soviet bloc for accelerated membership only risk further weakening the trust that the Balkans have in the EU./VOA


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