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Maduro wins the referendum on the annexation of Guyana (which now has a lot of wealth). The risk of war in Latin America is increasing

2023-12-04 18:01:19Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

 

Maduro wins the referendum on the annexation of Guyana (which now has a lot of
Nicolás Maduro

 

A territory at the center of a historical dispute and recently discovered to have raw materials, gold, oil and gas

An "overwhelming success, a historic victory": demonstration that "Venezuela has a transparent and reliable electoral system". This is how Nicolás Maduro celebrates - with a flurry of bombastic statements - the victory in a referendum on which he had staked all his cards, introducing himself to a challenge that ignites a new hotbed of tensions in Latin America.

We are still far from the sparks of a war, but the first sparks of a conflict appear on the horizon and the USA and Great Britain are watching with concern. Along the borders of Guyana, in the north-east of the continent, military contingents are being assembled. Brazil does it, worried about what might happen, Guyana itself does it, which with only 800,000 inhabitants is afraid of being overwhelmed by the patriotic and nationalist winds that the Caracas regime has been blowing for weeks. The president of Venezuela wins his referendum on the annexation of a large part of Guyana Esequiba, a territory of 160 thousand square kilometers rich in raw materials, gold, oil and gas. And it decides with 10,544,320 million votes a right that it considers central and historic. An avalanche yes that is close to 90 percent.

Maduro wins the referendum on the annexation of Guyana (which now has a lot of

History

With five questions he revived an old territorial claim on the former British colony that became independent in 1966. Surrounded by dense jungle, Guyana Esequiba had been occupied by the Spanish Crown which had tried to repopulate it. It then passed into the hands of the Dutch and was eventually handed over to Great Britain.

Exhausted by the war of independence, Caracas had renounced the piece of land that had always belonged to it and only in 1899 appeared before international justice claiming a sovereignty that the decision, known as the Paris Arbitration Award, finally assigned to London.

Venezuela called that sentence a fraud and refused to accept it. The dispute was not resolved for more than half a century, and only when Great Britain granted independence to its former colony did it reach an agreement with Venezuela recognizing its neighbor's claims and proposing to entrust the dispute to the United Nations. The dispute remained suspended in an limbo of uncertainty without ever reaching a clear and final agreement. After coming to power, Hugo Chávez himself ended up leaving in the drawer, a very poor state with no resources, to which he offered aid to support it in its misery. Wealthy Venezuela will sell its Orinoco oil at discounted prices in exchange for a geopolitical deal that strengthened Chavista's power leadership in the region. Nicolás Maduro, who was the foreign minister, followed the leader's directives and focused on internal battles to emerge as the next dolphin of the leader of the Bolivarian revolution. A "distraction" for which he paid dearly and for which everyone, the opposition at the top, reprimanded him even after the death of his mentor.

The issue arose again in 2020 when the United Nations' highest court, the International Court of Justice, took charge of the file at Guyana's request. The country had discovered very rich raw materials and feared the awakening of its neighbor. Something that happened immediately. The UN has yet to express its opinion since then and it will probably be years before it does. But when Maduro started beating the drum and promoted the referendum by launching a massive campaign that mobilized the entire state apparatus, Guyana was alarmed and asked the United Nations to block the consultation.

The court, last Friday, rejected the request and authorized the referendum. But it also warned Caracas to "refrain from taking any action that could alter Guyana's control of Essequiba."

Maduro wins the referendum on the annexation of Guyana (which now has a lot of

 

Maduro's bellicose tones

The exhortation is not rhetorical. The mobilization and the tones used by the Venezuelan president were very clear. "That land belongs to us, it was protected by our liberators and it will be protected again", he said a few hours before the opening of 11,122 polling stations spread throughout the country. But above all it was the last two of the five proposed questions that raised the greatest concerns. The fourth question was whether "we agree to oppose by all means, in accordance with the law, Guyana's claim to unilaterally dispose of a sea pending delimitation". Where, "by all means", it is not clear what it means and if this also presupposes the use of force, i.e. annexation by military means.

The fifth question is even clearer. The question was whether "we are in favor of the creation of the state of Guyana Esequiba and the development of an accelerated global aid plan for the current population of that territory that includes the granting of citizenship and a Venezuelan identity card." A total integration, of the residents themselves, who would thus officially become Venezuelan citizens.

Such enthusiasm and passion arises from two needs. The first is politics. Maduro is in trouble and needs to play the nationalist and patriotic card to regain consensus among the population, which has fallen to historic lows. In this way he diverts attention from the problems that have drawn the country into a catastrophic crisis, he tries to regain ground against the opposition that with Corina Machado, leader of the right and potential candidate in the upcoming elections of 2024, risks defeating him by change the seemingly indestructible regime.

Maduro wins the referendum on the annexation of Guyana (which now has a lot of

The second reason is economic. Guyana found itself rich, very rich, after Exxon Mobil, an American multinational energy company, identified over 30 oil fields off the Atlantic coast. The sites are located just across the Essequibo River from Caracas, considered the natural border of the territory it now strongly claims. Those pockets contain about 11 billion barrels of crude oil. For four years, they have started producing almost 400 thousand barrels per day and this has caused the GDP to increase to 43.5 percent in 2022, which this year is estimated at 3.2. A treasure that lifted the poorest and smallest country in South America out of poverty.

Today Guyana sees a bright future, all predictions ensure that it has a good chance of becoming the richest country in the region if it does not allow itself to be consumed by corruption. And Nicolás Maduro knows it. The invasion of Esequiba would be a nice breath of fresh air. Also to play the cards better in the match with the US, ready to trigger sanctions again if it hinders the 2024 election process, but also the lack of oil after the Russian blockade hit by sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. It is not known what will happen now. Bolstered by his success, Maduro will be able to argue his case more forcefully at the UN seeking a clear and final decision. Or he will threaten his neighbor with invasion. In both cases, he will have to face strong opposition from Guyana, which yesterday, with its president Irfaan Ali, dressed in camouflage and in front of soldiers lined up at the border, repeated that "Essequiba is ours, we are ready to protect every square centimeter"./ Taken from " La Repubblica "

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