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"This could have been the big earthquake we were expecting in Istanbul", experts: The risk has already decreased significantly

2025-04-23 22:18:37Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
"This could have been the big earthquake we were expecting in
Turkish citizens shaken by earthquake

After the 6.2 magnitude earthquake that struck Istanbul, Turkish experts are drawing attention with various statements about the risk of a major earthquake in Istanbul.

While some consider this earthquake a "tectonic blowout" and risk reduction, others are more cautious in their analysis.

Prof. Dr. Sener Usumezsoy: "There is no longer any risk of a major earthquake in Marmara"

According to Prof. Dr. Sener Usumezsoy, the Istanbul earthquake occurred on the same segment of the Silivri Fault where a 5.7 magnitude earthquake struck in 2019. He points out that this is the only segment still active in Marmara, while the other sheets have already ruptured and no longer pose a risk. "This line can produce another 6.2 magnitude earthquake, but not more and it is not a matter of days or months," he said. He emphasizes that there is no potential for an earthquake to reach the Adalar Fault or directly affect Istanbul.

Prof. Dr. Mahmut Bilgehan: "This may have been the earthquake we were waiting for"

On the other hand, Prof. Dr. Mahmut Bilgehan from Kastamonu University says that the 6.2 magnitude earthquake could be the so-called "big earthquake" that was expected for Istanbul. He estimates that after this earthquake, the probability of an earthquake above 7 magnitude has decreased significantly. "We did not expect an earthquake of 8 or 9 magnitude, but something between 6 and 7. This could have been it," the professor said.

However, Bilgehan points out that there is still an unbroken segment in Kumburgaz, about 60 kilometers long, that could produce another earthquake in the future. "The stress was discharged in one area, but it could have been transferred to another," he warns.

Both experts agree that citizens should not panic. Prof. Usumezsoy emphasizes that the aftershocks will be moderate and that no serious damage is expected in areas such as Avcilar or Çekmece, except for the risk of landslides.


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