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Der Spiegel: The Balkans on the brink of war, Vucic like Putin, that's what he aims for

2022-05-06 09:52:40Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX
Der Spiegel: The Balkans on the brink of war, Vucic like Putin, that's what
Alexander Vucic and Vladimir Putin

When it comes to the latest signals coming from Eastern and Southeastern Europe, the Austrian Foreign Ministry has a very strong sense of smell. Eventually, the city of Lviv, once called Lemberg, was ruled together with Sarajevo and Banja Luka in Bosnia from Vienna until 1918.

Therefore, Austrian diplomats are watching these days with concern not only the situation in Ukraine, but also the developments in the Balkans. "We know that Moscow has the potential to cause problems in other parts of the world," said Alexander Schallenberg, the Austrian foreign minister.

In the Balkans, he says, the most endangered is Bosnia.

If the conflict spreads from Ukraine to the countries of the former Yugoslavia, the consequences in Europe would be devastating, Schallenberg warns. "If a new war broke out in the Western Balkans, it would essentially mean a conflict in the backyard of the EU," he said.

Therefore, he insists that the 6 countries left outside the EU in the Balkans should be integrated into the bloc as soon as possible. "This is self-defense, not altruism," he said.

Signals coming from Serb-populated regions - orthodox relatives of Russia -

are really disturbing. Apart from Serbia, the same can be said for Bosnia, Kosovo, Montenegro and northern Macedonia.

The situation is particularly dire in Bosnia and Herzegovina's Serb-majority entity, Republika Srpska. With Moscow's blessing, its prime minister, Milorad Dodik, has intensified in recent months his efforts to achieve his long-term goal: secession from the federation.

As a member of the tripartite presidency, he is an official representative of Bosnia, but refers to the country as a "dead baby in the womb". In a speech to his supporters in Bijeljina in mid-April, he shouted: "Greetings to Serbia!", Without even mentioning Bosnia and Herzegovina's name.

Exactly 30 years after the outbreak of the war in Bosnia, where about 100,000 people were killed, signs of a new armed conflict in the Balkans are increasing. Some analysts are concerned about a war axis stretching from Moscow to Belgrade and up to Republika Srpska's capital, Banja Luka.

They are concerned that the separatists of Greater Serbia may be confident of supporting the Kremlin. Zivko Budimir, the former Croatian representative in the tripartite presidency, believes the Kremlin will support it if Republika Srpska declares independence from Sarajevo.

Will Vladimir Putin try to implement in Bosnia the model created in Eastern Ukraine, with the "People's Republics" of Luhansk and Donetsk? Since last autumn, Republika Srpska, under Dodik's leadership, has blocked most of Bosnia's state institutions. More than 200 laws and legal acts have been suspended.

Also, Republika Srpska, which makes up about half of the country's territory, wants to create its own army, and no longer recognize the jurisdiction of the federal judiciary and tax authorities. Essentially, the plan is to destroy the fragile state created by the 1995 Dayton Accords: The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, within which Bosniaks, Serbs and Muslim Croats must live under a common roof, and under common rules.

An assassination attempt in Sarajevo in 1914 sparked World War I. Three generations later, Sarajevo was the epicenter of the bloodiest war that accompanied the break-up of Yugoslavia. What lessons has the world learned since then? The European military mission, EUFOR Althea, has doubled its presence in the region.

The US and Britain have imposed sanctions on Dodik and other Republika Srpska leaders. Meanwhile, the European Union has so far avoided taking any action. Even if it does, a veto by Victor Orban's Hungary is almost certain. Also from Croatia.

Under the pretext that the Croatian population is being discriminated against, especially in Herzegovina, the leader of the Bosnian Croats, Dragan Covic, has repeatedly joined Dodik in attacking the federation's institutions. The Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), which is a member of the center-right European People's Party group in the European Parliament, lobbies on behalf of Covic in Brussels.

Dodik is merely a hostage to Vladimir Putin's great geopolitical skier. The Serbian ultra-nationalist is playing with fire in front of Brussels, and boasts of his close ties to the Kremlin chief, who hosted Dodik again in Moscow in December 2021.

Strategic instructions are regularly communicated to Dodik by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov or Russian Ambassador Igor Kalabuchov. The latter has made clear what Bosnia can expect if it seeks to move from Partnership for Peace to NATO membership.

"We have shown it in Ukraine. "If there are threats, we will react!" Said the Russian ambassador. But Sarajevo was not the only capital that interpreted his words as an open threat.

"I told Dodik not to form an army of his own and he agreed!" With this sentence, Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic has tried to clarify who has the last word in the Serbian camp. He also has close ties to the Kremlin and meets regularly with Putin.

He upheld the UN Security Council's condemnation of Russia's occupation of Ukraine before deciding not to accept EU demands to join its sanctions. Vucic is regarded as a master in the art of avoiding clarity. The autocratic leader rules his country with a strong hand, and with a carefully calibrated balancing act.

Serbia is a candidate for EU membership, but that has not stopped the president from flirting with the Kremlin, or praising Serbo-Chinese friendship, pretending in Washington that it is the only "anchor" of stability in the Balkans. Newly elected to another term, pressure on Vucic has increased since the beginning of the Russian occupation.

The father is asked to have a clear attitude. But Vucic continues to play with 2 gates. Serbia recently armed itself with a Chinese air defense system. Thousands of people also marched in Belgrade a while ago, chanting: "Putin! "Serbia and Russia, brothers forever!"

Vucic needs Russia to block any UN Security Council resolution

aimed at a formal recognition of Kosovo. Like Russia, which is strengthening its imperial ambitions with the impressive phrase "Russkiy Mir" - The Russian world - the term "Srpski Svet" - The Serbian world - can be heard more and more in Serbia, a name that carefully encompasses all areas where Serbs live.

Vucic is eager to partially preserve the Greater Serbia rhetoric used by Slobodan Milosevic since the 1990s. According to a poll conducted in April, a majority of Serbs have spoken out for the first time in two decades against membership in the European Union. Vucic dreams of "a great, powerful Serbia" to be feared by others, says political scientist Vedran Dzihic, who teaches in Vienna. 


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