The trade war between the United States and China is returning with renewed intensity, and the first victims are none other than American farmers, many of whom supported Donald Trump in the 2024 election.
The US president announced the imposition of additional tariffs of 145% on all Chinese products, despite the recent suspension of corresponding measures for other countries. China responded immediately and harshly: not only insisting that it will fight to the end, but also continued to increase its own tariffs on all US agricultural products, reaching a total of 135%.
The new escalation directly affects one of the most important US export sectors: soybean products. China is the largest buyer of soybeans from the United States, mainly for animal feed. Already since the first trade war of the Trump presidency, Beijing had turned to other countries such as Brazil and Argentina. Now, analysts estimate that imports of American agricultural products from China could fall almost to zero.
Soybeans are the main crop affected, and the effects are expected to be devastating. Brazil, the world's largest soybean exporter, has significantly increased its exports to China since 2010, while US exports have remained stagnant. In 2024 alone, 73% of Brazilian soybean exports ended up in China.
Meanwhile, Chinese interest in new trade partnerships with Southeast Asian and European countries is intensifying, as part of a strategy of distancing itself from the US. The Chinese commerce minister recently met with EU officials to restart trade negotiations, while President Xi Jinping himself has strengthened relations with Brazil.
The economic losses for American farmers are already being recorded. During the 2018 trade war, the American agricultural sector suffered losses of $27 billion, 71% of which was related to soybeans alone. And the new crisis is predicted to be even worse.
The political weight of the crisis is just as great. Most major producing states, such as Illinois and Minnesota, had supported Trump. Many farmers now see their exports threatened and prices squeezed as Washington seeks to close a $300 billion trade deficit with Beijing. dollars a year.
The question now is who will pull out first. For now, economic data and China's international pivot suggest that Beijing has alternatives. Whether and to what extent American manufacturers – and by extension Trump – will bear the cost remains to be seen.