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ANALYSIS: Is the turning point in the Ukraine war approaching?

2026-05-18 22:30:28Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA ROMAN GONçARENKO
Zelensky and Trump

How has Russia's war against Ukraine changed? Could it end this fall? DW spoke to military officials and experts about the possibility of a new ceasefire.

The war that the US and Israel are waging against Iran continues to distract attention from Russia's war against Ukraine. Kiev fears that it will receive fewer American weapons and is preparing for the next few years. Meanwhile, Moscow is benefiting from rising global oil and gas prices. This is one side of reality in the spring of 2026.

The other is a virtual stalemate on the front. Although neither side is currently able to make significant territorial gains, Ukraine is increasingly attacking oil infrastructure deep inside Russia – for example at Tuapse on the Black Sea. The Kremlin is increasingly forced to temporarily shut down the internet across Russia, as President Vladimir Putin’s popularity continues to decline.

What does all this mean? Where is the war heading in the fifth year since the start of the major offensive? Western experts and military officials believe that the de facto end of the war is approaching. They attribute this to this year's US elections, among other things.

Will Putin order a new mobilization?

Given the situation on the front lines in Ukraine, international experts have speculated for weeks that Putin could announce a new mobilization – as he did in the fall of 2022. Even Ukrainian military officials – recently appointed by President Volodymyr Zelensky – are not ruling out the possibility.

However, Evelyn Farkas of the McCain Institute at Arizona State University does not believe that Russia will make a full mobilization. Farkas, who held a senior position in the Pentagon under Barack Obama, points to problems within the Russian economy that, in her opinion, would discourage the Kremlin leader from such a step.

Will Ukraine become more independent of Western weapons? Despite the situation in the Persian Gulf, Kurt Volker – the former US State Department special representative for Ukraine under Donald Trump’s first administration – believes that Ukraine is in a stronger position today than it was before.

In his opinion, Kiev is now significantly less dependent on Western weapons, meeting “60 to 70 percent” of its needs domestically. According to him, Ukraine could continue to fight even if the United States cut off arms supplies through European channels. Just a year ago, during a visit to the United States, Volodymyr Zelensky feared that Ukraine could lose the war if American support were cut off.

Volker does not think that Ukraine could lose the war if supplies from America are cut off, but he notes that even Washington cannot guarantee Kiev continued supplies of Patriot missiles in the quantities it has had so far.

Farkas: Zelensky will resist Trump's pressure

The Ukrainian president recently said he expects to face increasing pressure from the Trump administration by the fall. According to him, Trump wants Ukraine to accept Russia's conditions for a ceasefire — more specifically, to agree to the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kiev-controlled part of Donbas. Evelyn Farkas, however, believes that Ukraine will be able to successfully resist this pressure.

The McCain Institute director expects the Iran crisis to be resolved by the summer – and the Strait of Hormuz to reopen. The US could then seek “regime change” in Cuba, as Trump previously announced. But even in this scenario, she doesn’t expect the pressure on Kiev to increase. Instead, the pressure on Cuba could further weaken Russia – Havana’s historic ally.

Serious negotiations only after the US elections

Both Farkas and Volker believe that the US congressional elections in November could mark a turning point. After them, the position of Trump and his Republican Party could weaken.

"This will be enough to put pressure on the US administration to continue supporting Ukraine and NATO," Farkas believes.

The chairman of NATO's Military Committee, Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, estimates that the war is "difficult" to end on the battlefield and that the Russian military remains "strong", despite mounting losses. However, the economic situation could be one of the factors that could encourage Moscow to agree to a peace deal.

“I don’t think Russia will ever agree to a peace deal with Ukraine, but I think at some point they could agree to a ceasefire. I think we’re getting close to that point,” says Kurt Volker, Trump’s former special representative for Ukraine. He says negotiations to end the war have been “a farce” so far. But the changing situation in Russia and the losses it is suffering in the war could force the Kremlin to suspend hostilities.

"Reality is important. The situation in Russia has deteriorated significantly and continues to deteriorate," says Kurt Volker. His prediction is this: time is against Putin. Experts are still divided on when a turning point might occur. Volker does not rule out the possibility that this could happen as early as this year. According to him, the probability is "over 50 percent." Farkas thinks differently: He believes that 2027 will be the year in which "the Ukrainians will emerge victorious."/ DW


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