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Analysis: Is the global left hitting rock bottom? It's more unpopular than ever since the Cold War

2025-01-19 16:53:09Kosova&Bota SHKRUAR NGA REDAKSIA VOX

 

Analysis: Is the global left hitting rock bottom? It's more unpopular than
Is the global left reaching its lowest point? It's more unpopular than ever since the Cold War

 

The popularity of left-wing parties around the world is at an all-time low. The poll was published in the British newspaper The Telegraph. Comparing statistical data and election results in 73 countries around the world, it concludes that left-wing factions are more unpopular today than at any time since the end of the Cold War (1947-1991).

The analysis comes after a year of electoral triumphs for conservatives around the world, culminating in the election of Donald Trump as US president.

Parties on the right have the primacy, as over 1.5 billion people in over 70 countries have voted for them by 2024. Left-wing parties suffered a record drop in average votes to just 45.4% in the last elections of each Republic analyzed by "The Telegraph" in 73 democratic countries.

In Western Europe and the US, left-wing parties secured only 42.3% of the vote, while the right took 55.7%, achieving the largest difference in vote share since 1990. The far right also achieved a record vote share of 14.7%, thanks to… alarming performance in elections from France to Panama.

Analysis: Is the global left hitting rock bottom? It's more unpopular than

The decline of the left is also being felt in Latin America, a bastion of socialism after years of violent fascist dictatorships. After the inauguration of Donald Trump, new defeats for the left are expected on the political horizon in Canada, Australia and Germany, the EU's largest economy.

What analysts say

"The right-wing trend is on the rise. There is no convincing reason that this trend will stop anytime soon," Professor Matthijs Rooduijn, a political scientist at the University of Amsterdam, told The Telegraph.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Cliffe, editorial director and fellow for politics at the European Council on Foreign Relations think tank, says the global shift to the right is the result of three interrelated trends: “The decline of organized labor driven by globalization, the strengthening of identity politics, which is exploited more successfully by the right than the left, and the general tendency of forces on the left to fragment rather than unite.”

In the US, Trump won the popular vote in last November’s election, receiving 77 million votes to Democrat Kamala Harris’ 75 million. In Canada, polls show Pierre Poillievre, a populist politician nicknamed “Canada’s Trump,” is the favorite to replace Justin Trudeau as prime minister. In Australia, the Conservatives have surged ahead of the Labor government in opinion polls ahead of the 2025 election.

The view of Europe

At the same time, right-wing parties in Europe have widened their lead over their left-wing opponents to a near-historic 14% in recent European elections. Labour’s landslide victory in the UK was the only consolation for the left. However, the smile is unlikely to last long, as the first YouGov/Times poll after the 2024 general election shows a close race between Labour (26%) and the Reform Party (25%). The Conservative Party has slipped to third place with 22%.

In Western Europe, the far right made inroads, scoring a record average vote share of 16.9% in France, Austria, Germany and elsewhere. Voters across the EU gave center-right parties victories in last June’s European elections, but the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), France’s National Front and Austria’s Freedom Party all achieved good results.

In France, Emmanuel Macron’s decision to call early elections after Marine Le Pen’s National Front won the country’s European elections has thrown French politics into disarray and rendered Macron himself powerless. The National Front was prevented from taking power by a coalition of all left-wing parties. But Le Pen’s party is the largest in the French parliament and toppled Barnier’s minority government in just three months.

In Austria, the far-right pro-Putin Freedom Party won parliamentary elections for the first time and is now expected to form a coalition government. In Germany, the conservative CDU is expected to win parliamentary elections next February. The far-right AfD is in second place, ahead of Olaf Scholz’s unpopular left-wing Social Democratic Party. Last year, the AfD won regional elections, the first far-right party to do so in Germany since World War II and the fall of the Nazi party.

2024 was the worst year for left-wing parties in Central and Eastern Europe since the fall of the Iron Curtain. The center-right won in Croatia and Bulgaria. The far-right won the now-cancelled elections in Romania. In the Czech Republic, Andrej Babic, a far-right populist businessman and Trump imitator, is expected to win this year’s election, leading by at least 14 points in the latest polls.

Analysis: Is the global left hitting rock bottom? It's more unpopular than

Experts say the success of the populist right is due to the strengthening of anti-immigration sentiment in Europe. At the same time, far-right politicians are gaining greater access and their messages are being able to have a greater impact on society through social media, an opportunity they did not have in the past.

Historic fortresses are also "collapsing" in Latin America

Në të njëjtën kohë, përqafimi mbytës i skenës politike të Amerikës Latine nga e majta, ka ardhur në dobësim që nga fundi i viteve 2000, pas fitoreve të liderëve si argjentinasi Javier Milei. Pas zgjedhjeve të vitit 2024, përqindja e votave të së majtës ishte 51.6%, më e ulëta në mbi 30 vjet. Në të njëjtën kohë, vota e së djathtës ka mbetur në 40% që nga viti 2018.

Analysis: Is the global left hitting rock bottom? It's more unpopular than

Në vitin 2023, Paraguai zgjodhi konservatorin Santiago Peña dhe Ekuadori zgjodhi kandidatin e qendrës së djathtë Daniel Noboa. Në të njëjtin vit, Milei eksentrik u bë president i Argjentinës me premtime për shkurtime në sektorin publik. Ai do të përballet me zgjedhjet afatmesme në vitin 2025, por deri më tani partia e tij po ecën mirë në sondazhe.

Sipas Dr. Christopher Sabatini, hulumtues për Amerikën Latine dhe SHBA në Chatham House, partitë e krahut të majtë kanë parë rënie të votave të tyre si rezultat i paaftësisë së qeverive, premtimeve të tepërta dhe korrupsionit. “Gjatë dy dekadave të fundit, shqetësimet e votuesve për krimin dhe dhunën janë rritur. Kjo është një fushë ku e majta nuk ka arritur dot të prodhojë shumë rezultate ose një përgjigje të qëndrueshme” – tha ai për “The Telegraph”.

Jair Bolsonaro i quajtur “Trump i tropikëve” humbi zgjedhjet e vitit 2022, por partia e tij mbetet më e madhja në parlamentin brazilian. Analistët vlerësojnë se ardhja e Trump në pushtet në SHBA do të favorizojë edhe “mini-Trumpët” në vendet e Amerikës Latine.

Çfarë ndodh në Azi dhe Australi

Në Azi dhe Australi, e djathta ruajti dominimin e saj në politikë me 55.6% të votave, mesatarja më e lartë që nga viti 2017. Jacinda Ardern, kryeministrja e majtë e Zelandës së Re dha dorëheqjen në vitin 2023 dhe u zëvendësua nga Christopher Luxon, udhëheqës të Partisë Kombëtare të qendrës së djathtë. Në Australi, koalicioni i krahut të djathtë të Partisë Liberale-Nacionale ka marrë kryesimin në sondazhe përpara zgjedhjeve që do të mbahen këtë vit.

Vitin e kaluar, Partia Liberal Demokratike e krahut të djathtë të Japonisë humbi shumicën, por rritja e partive të reja, më të vogla të ekstremit të djathtë ndihmoi në rritjen e votave të krahut të djathtë të vendit në 63.87%. Në Indi, demokracia më e madhe në botë, Narendra Modi dhe Partia Bharatiya Janata (BJP) u zgjodhën për një mandat të tretë në qershor 2024. Megjithatë, koalicioni opozitar i qendrës dhe i qendrës së majtë të Kongresit Kombëtar Indian pa një rritje të votave.

Historikisht lart… rënie në Afrikë dhe Lindjen e Mesme

Në 8 demokracitë afrikane dhe të Lindjes së Mesme, përqindja e votave të së majtës ra në një rekord prej 54.2% në 2024-ën. Për shumicën e 30 viteve të fundit, pjesa e partive të krahut të majtë ka qenë gjithmonë mbi 60%, por kjo ka rënë, pas një periudhe të gjatë skandalesh të keqmenaxhimit financiar.

Në Afrikën e Jugut, ekonomia më e madhe e kontinentit, Kongresi Kombëtar Afrikan i qendrës së majtë nuk arriti të fitojë shumicën parlamentare që mbante që nga zgjedhjet e para pas aparteidit në 1994-ën.

Benjamin Netanyahu's right-wing Likud party has been in power in Israel since 2020. The next elections will not be held until 2027, but Likud, which is in a coalition with four far-right parties, is still ahead in the polls, despite Netanyahu's handling of Gaza and the hostage crisis following the October 7, 2023, terrorist attack by Hamas.

Britain is an exception.

Despite all this, Labour’s sweeping victory in the UK was one of the few triumphs for the Left in 2024, but even this phenomenon is unlikely to last. The YouGov/Times poll shows a close race between Labour and the UK Reform Party, on 26% and 25%. The Conservative Party is a close third, taking 22% of the vote.

All of the above clearly shows that the left will have to reexamine its policies worldwide and seek partnerships, perhaps even against the divisive logics that dominate its DNA. A change of faces is also seen as imperative in order to inspire young voters. Otherwise, 2025 could be even worse for left-wing parties worldwide.

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