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Now the West may have no choice but to attack Iran

2023-12-30 22:48:01Pikëpamje SHKRUAR NGA JOHN BOLTON
Now the West may have no choice but to attack Iran
Now the West may have no choice but to attack Iran

Attacks by the rebels of the Houthi group on commercial ships and also on ships of the American Navy in the Red Sea, threaten the global economy, endangering the very important trade route in the Suez Canal.

As if 14 such attacks in the past month were not enough, and directly against Israel, Iran has now officially joined the conflict. The Pentagon said on December 23 that a drone launched by Iran struck a merchant ship linked to Israel in the waters of the Indian Ocean.

It was the first time since October 7 that Washington directly blamed Iran, despite more than 100 previous attacks on US personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed Shiite militias for which the White House has been reluctant to publicly claim responsibility. .

Tehran denied the attack in the Indian Ocean, repeating its justification that Hamas is acting independently in the war against Israel. However, after that incident, India deployed its destroyers equipped with high-precision missiles to the region, and is seeking more evidence on the perpetrators of the attack.

But after Christmas, Iran committed "the classic Washington blunder - that is, accidentally telling the truth - when the Revolutionary Guard Corps described the barbaric attack by Hamas as "one of the acts of revenge for the killing of General Qassem Soleimani by the US and the Zionists".

Hamas was quick to deny the link, but its denial was as incredulous as the Revolutionary Guard's subsequent attempt to distance itself from the earlier statement. The truth is that Iran has directly committed an act of war against what it believed to be an Israeli target.

Although it can hardly be compared to the barbarity of Hamas, to the attacks of Hezbollah and the Houthis, to the massive reliance on weapons and intelligence data, Tehran has crossed the line. The assumption among many experts in the West is that we should expect even more attacks in the coming days.

For example, Iran has recently threatened to block commercial shipping across the Mediterranean. Therefore, it is his war that prompts the possible escalation of the situation, and not the West's self-defense. The Biden administration, most of the media and pro-Iranian propagandists can continue to ignore the reality of who is attacking and striking in this conflict.

But evidence is inexorably mounting that the October 7 attacks were aimed at shedding Jewish blood to implement Soleimani's "ring of fire" strategy, in which Iran instigates the outbreak of war on multiple fronts, directing operations through terrorists and state actors he has armed, trained and financed.

Iran's short-term objectives still remain hazy. Was the sudden brutal attack by Hamas a special game, to see if the government of Israel would fall; to assess Western support for Israel; to block the restoration of full Israeli-Saudi diplomatic relations, or a combination of all of these?

Or was Iran waiting to see if Israel would be militarily blockaded in Gaza, and then decide what its next step would be? Or was the attack a self-initiative of Hamas? Since then, Hezbollah has also fired rockets and mortars at Israel, forcing the latter to evacuate civilians from a 2-kilometer-wide strip along the border with Lebanon.

While Hezbollah has yet to launch a full-scale attack, it has increased its arsenal, perhaps waiting for the right moment to strike. Houthi and Shia militia attacks have been met with only weak and ineffective responses from the West.

Neither Hamas, nor the Houthis, nor the Iraqi militia have yet incited the US or Israel to retaliate directly against Iran. Of course, Tehran does not feel under enough pressure to rein in the militias that depend on it, proving that the West has not created the conditions to prevent conflicts.

The White House and its spokespersons repeat endlessly that they do not want the current conflicts to spread. But Biden's lack of a real strategy, based only on hope, will not succeed. Only if Israel, America, Britain and others show that they have the determination and ability to inflict heavy costs on Iran as punishment for its attacks, will they convince the Ayatollahs that continuing down this path will brought them intolerable pain.

And it is very likely that only direct military force, used against the most important targets inside Iran, will impose such costs, showing Tehran that it has miscalculated not only Israel, but also US President Joe Biden and the West in general.

It is precisely for this reason that evidence of a direct Iranian attack on merchant shipping in the Indian Ocean is so important. It has been clear for years that overthrowing the regime of the mullahs and replacing them with some form of government that enjoys the support of the citizens of Iran is essential to reducing insecurities throughout the Middle East.

The financing of terrorist actions against Israel by Arab countries is more difficult today, especially now that full and open diplomatic relations with Jerusalem are expanding. If Iran's funding of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other barbarians disappears, their ability to survive, except in remote training camps in re-Taliban-ruled Afghanistan, will decline significantly. This is the result that Washington and London should aim to achieve.

Instead of pushing Israel for more "ceasefires" and "ceasefires," they should allow Jerusalem to achieve its legitimate objective of eliminating Hamas as a military and political force. This is the surest way to convince the Ayatollahs of Iran that the game has failed and their end may be very near.

Source: Daily Telegraph/ Note: John Bolton, former US national security adviser during the Trump presidency.


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